Toledo

19-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

50.1%Toledo

49.9%App State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADApp State -1.7

PROJECTED TOTAL149.0

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -100

App State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreToledo 74

Projected Total149.0

Projected ScoreApp State 75

Team Comparison

ToledoMetricApp State

58.8MMH Power Index54.2

116.0Offensive Efficiency110.9

109.6Defensive Efficiency101.7

6.4Net Efficiency9.2

2.3Strength of Schedule-4.2

10.2Last 10 Net Efficiency7.0

69.8Tempo64.9

55.1%Effective FG%51.1%

14.6%Turnover Rate15.2%

30.4%Offensive Rebound %34.2%

30.3%Free Throw Rate39.8%

4.5Average Margin6.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–54.2), offensive efficiency (116.0–110.9), strength of schedule (2.3–-4.2), recent form (10.2–7.0).

App State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.7–109.6), net efficiency (9.2–6.4), offensive rebounding (34.2–30.4).

Final

Toledo

104—109

App State

App State by 5 • 90.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ToledoTEAM STATApp State

40-81FG40-66

49.0%FG%61.0%

11-243PT8-18

46.0%3PT%44.0%

13-17FT21-29

76.0%FT%72.0%

37Rebounds36

12Offensive Rebounds5

15Assists16

14Turnovers16

14Steals12

3Blocks11

19Fouls12

Player Box Score

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dante Maddox Jr.	Guard	45	8-19	4-9	5-5	2	5	2	0	25
Sonny Wilson	G	44	7-11	1-1	2-2	7	2	1	0	17
Tyler Cochran	G	44	6-17	2-7	3-4	7	2	1	2	17
Ra'Heim Moss	Guard	37	6-14	1-3	3-4	6	4	6	0	16
Javan Simmons	F	41	7-12	1-2	0-2	10	1	1	1	15
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	8	4-4	2-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	10
Sam Lewis	G	17	2-4	0-0	0-0	0	1	3	0	4
Grgur Brcic	F	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Bryce Ford	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Ben Wight	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

App State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Donovan Gregory	Forward	38	10-11	0-0	4-9	6	2	1	3	24
Myles Tate	Guard	33	6-11	2-4	6-8	7	3	3	0	20
Jordan Marsh	G	31	6-12	1-4	4-4	3	4	3	2	17
Terence Harcum	Guard	43	6-10	2-3	2-2	5	3	1	0	16
CJ Huntley	Forward	27	5-6	3-4	0-0	4	0	1	0	13
Justin Abson	F	39	4-6	0-0	3-4	7	4	3	6	11
Tre'Von Spillers	F	19	3-5	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	8
Christopher Mantis	Forward	15	0-4	0-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Xavion Brown	Guard	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

90.9Possessions90.9

114.4Offensive Efficiency119.9

119.9Defensive Efficiency114.4

-5.5Net Efficiency5.5

56.2%Effective FG%66.7%

58.4%True Shooting %68.3%

15.4%Turnover Rate17.6%

21.0%Free Throw Rate43.9%

29.6%3-Point Rate27.3%

1.07Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

App State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 90.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.