Fresno State

13-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

89.8%Fresno State

10.2%Air Force

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADFresno State -14.4

PROJECTED TOTAL143.9

MODEL MONEYLINEFresno State -880

Air Force

3-29

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreFresno State 79

Projected Total143.9

Projected ScoreAir Force 65

Team Comparison

Fresno StateMetricAir Force

47.1MMH Power Index23

104.9Offensive Efficiency91.3

104.9Defensive Efficiency118.5

0.0Net Efficiency-27.2

1.5Strength of Schedule6.2

-6.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-33.5

69.4Tempo67.4

51.3%Effective FG%49.0%

18.2%Turnover Rate21.9%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %21.4%

35.5%Free Throw Rate35.9%

0.0Average Margin-18.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Fresno State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY89.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMFresno State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (47.1–23.0), offensive efficiency (104.9–91.3), defensive efficiency (104.9–118.5), net efficiency (0.0–-27.2).

Air Force COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.2–1.5), free throw rate (35.9–35.5).

Final

Fresno State

68—66

Air Force

Fresno State by 2 • 63.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Fresno StateTEAM STATAir Force

24-42FG26-59

57.0%FG%44.0%

8-133PT9-32

62.0%3PT%28.0%

12-16FT5-10

75.0%FT%50.0%

31Rebounds26

6Offensive Rebounds10

10Assists17

19Turnovers11

7Steals11

2Blocks5

13Fouls14

Player Box Score

Fresno State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Xavier DuSell	Guard	38	8-11	7-8	6-6	4	0	0	0	29
Jalen Weaver	Guard	35	6-11	1-3	3-3	2	2	1	0	16
Isaiah Hill	Guard	40	7-13	0-2	0-1	2	7	2	0	14
Enoch Boakye	Forward	35	1-3	0-0	3-5	10	0	1	2	5
Isaiah Pope	Guard	23	2-3	0-0	0-0	3	0	1	0	4
Leo Colimerio	Forward	22	0-0	0-0	0-1	5	1	0	0	0
Isaac Taveras	G	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Donavan Yap	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Air Force

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jeffrey Mills	Guard	40	8-13	4-9	0-1	3	3	2	0	20
Beau Becker	Forward	40	8-18	1-9	0-0	4	1	1	2	17
Rytis Petraitis	F	40	5-11	1-3	3-7	11	5	5	1	14
Byron Brown	Guard	30	4-8	2-4	0-0	0	2	1	2	10
Ethan Taylor	Guard	28	1-8	1-6	2-2	1	3	1	0	5
Chase Beasley	Guard	20	0-1	0-1	0-0	3	3	1	0	0
Kolby Gilles	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.7Possessions63.7

106.8Offensive Efficiency103.6

103.6Defensive Efficiency106.8

3.1Net Efficiency-3.1

66.7%Effective FG%51.7%

68.5%True Shooting %51.8%

30.4%Turnover Rate17.0%

38.1%Free Throw Rate16.9%

31.0%3-Point Rate54.2%

0.53Assist / Turnover1.55

Game Summary

Fresno State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 63.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.