NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

44.3%NC State

55.7%Wake Forest

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADWake Forest -1.2

PROJECTED TOTAL161.5

MODEL MONEYLINEWake Forest -126

Wake Forest

18-17

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 80

Projected Total161.5

Projected ScoreWake Forest 81

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricWake Forest

60.1MMH Power Index57.6

118.4Offensive Efficiency112.4

108.6Defensive Efficiency109.7

9.8Net Efficiency2.7

6.4Strength of Schedule7.2

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

70.2Tempo70.2

55.1%Effective FG%52.8%

13.1%Turnover Rate15.5%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %30.0%

35.7%Free Throw Rate36.1%

6.9Average Margin1.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

NC State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNC State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (60.1–57.6), offensive efficiency (118.4–112.4), defensive efficiency (108.6–109.7), net efficiency (9.8–2.7).

Wake Forest COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (7.2–6.4), recent form (-0.1–-11.9), offensive rebounding (30.0–28.2).

Final

NC State

79—83

Wake Forest

Wake Forest by 4 • 72.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATWake Forest

32-65FG29-60

49.0%FG%48.0%

7-203PT8-21

35.0%3PT%38.0%

8-11FT17-21

73.0%FT%81.0%

35Rebounds32

8Offensive Rebounds5

14Assists11

9Turnovers8

7Steals5

2Blocks4

21Fouls11

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DJ Horne	Guard	35	13-21	4-7	1-1	3	1	1	1	31
DJ Burns	Forward	30	6-13	0-0	2-3	4	0	0	0	14
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	33	5-5	2-2	1-2	12	3	1	0	13
Casey Morsell	Guard	29	3-8	0-2	3-4	0	3	2	0	9
Jayden Taylor	Guard	35	3-15	1-8	0-0	6	5	2	1	7
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	7	1-2	0-1	1-1	0	0	1	0	3
Michael O'Connell	Guard	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Ernest Ross	Forward	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Breon Pass	Guard	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Wake Forest

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Hunter Sallis	Guard	36	12-17	4-6	5-5	6	2	2	0	33
Andrew Carr	Forward	35	6-12	2-6	1-1	7	1	0	3	15
Cameron Hildreth	Guard	34	3-10	0-1	4-5	3	2	2	0	10
Boopie Miller	G	33	3-9	0-1	4-6	1	6	1	0	10
Efton Reid III	Forward	24	3-4	0-0	3-4	5	0	0	1	9
Parker Friedrichsen	G	18	2-5	2-5	0-0	2	0	0	0	6
Matthew Marsh	Center	12	0-1	0-0	0-0	6	0	0	0	0
Damari Monsanto	Guard	8	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.1Possessions72.1

109.6Offensive Efficiency115.1

115.1Defensive Efficiency109.6

-5.5Net Efficiency5.5

54.6%Effective FG%55.0%

56.2%True Shooting %59.3%

12.6%Turnover Rate11.0%

16.9%Free Throw Rate35.0%

30.8%3-Point Rate35.0%

1.56Assist / Turnover1.38

Game Summary

Wake Forest won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 72.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.