Montana State

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

79.4%Montana State

20.6%Northern Arizona

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMontana State -8.4

PROJECTED TOTAL150.2

MODEL MONEYLINEMontana State -385

Northern Arizona

10-22

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMontana State 79

Projected Total150.2

Projected ScoreNorthern Arizona 71

Team Comparison

Montana StateMetricNorthern Arizona

53.6MMH Power Index36.9

114.4Offensive Efficiency107.1

104.9Defensive Efficiency114.8

9.5Net Efficiency-7.7

-3.7Strength of Schedule-1.8

4.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-16.5

68.1Tempo66.6

55.1%Effective FG%53.5%

14.7%Turnover Rate15.8%

28.1%Offensive Rebound %24.0%

30.7%Free Throw Rate33.6%

6.5Average Margin-5.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Montana State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMontana State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.6–36.9), offensive efficiency (114.4–107.1), defensive efficiency (104.9–114.8), net efficiency (9.5–-7.7).

Northern Arizona COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.8–-3.7), free throw rate (33.6–30.7).

Final

Montana State

71—76

Northern Arizona

Northern Arizona by 5 • 76.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Montana StateTEAM STATNorthern Arizona

26-65FG29-57

40.0%FG%51.0%

7-193PT6-16

37.0%3PT%38.0%

12-17FT12-18

71.0%FT%67.0%

34Rebounds41

9Offensive Rebounds6

9Assists17

12Turnovers17

9Steals8

2Blocks4

18Fouls18

Player Box Score

Montana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Brandon Walker	F	27	8-18	0-2	6-9	4	0	1	0	22
Robert Ford III	Guard	38	7-15	2-7	5-6	11	3	3	0	21
Brian Goracke	Forward	39	4-9	3-5	0-0	11	1	0	0	11
Eddie Turner III	Guard	24	5-11	1-2	0-0	0	4	3	0	11
Tyler Patterson	Guard	37	1-5	1-2	0-0	2	0	2	0	3
Sam Lecholat	Forward	20	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	2	2
Chika Nduka	Forward	8	0-4	0-0	1-2	1	1	0	0	1
Jaden Geron	G	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
John Olmsted	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Northern Arizona

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Trent McLaughlin	Guard	39	8-17	4-10	4-6	6	2	0	0	24
Carson Basham	Forward	32	9-14	0-0	2-3	11	1	3	1	20
Liam Lloyd	Guard	35	3-5	2-3	2-4	8	4	1	0	10
Jayden Jackson	G	25	3-5	0-1	3-4	3	1	2	0	9
Rockwell Reynolds	Forward	7	2-2	0-0	1-1	2	0	0	2	5
Oakland Fort	G	37	2-10	0-1	0-0	6	6	1	0	4
Isaiah Kai	Guard	11	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	3	1	1	2
Diego Campisano	F	9	1-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Ryan Abelman	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Tichyque Musaka	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

76.4Possessions76.4

92.9Offensive Efficiency99.5

99.5Defensive Efficiency92.9

-6.5Net Efficiency6.5

45.4%Effective FG%56.1%

48.6%True Shooting %58.0%

15.8%Turnover Rate22.2%

26.2%Free Throw Rate31.6%

29.2%3-Point Rate28.1%

0.75Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Northern Arizona won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 76.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.