Penn State

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

12.3%Penn State

87.7%Northwestern

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthwestern -13.3

PROJECTED TOTAL150.9

MODEL MONEYLINENorthwestern -713

Northwestern

15-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScorePenn State 69

Projected Total150.9

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 82

Team Comparison

Penn StateMetricNorthwestern

42.3MMH Power Index55.4

109.2Offensive Efficiency111.6

117.6Defensive Efficiency109.8

-8.4Net Efficiency1.8

5.3Strength of Schedule5.6

-20.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.7

67.5Tempo65.6

53.4%Effective FG%51.9%

15.6%Turnover Rate13.0%

25.6%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

34.6%Free Throw Rate34.8%

-5.7Average Margin1.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Northwestern HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY87.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorthwestern holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (55.4–42.3), offensive efficiency (111.6–109.2), defensive efficiency (109.8–117.6), net efficiency (1.8–-8.4).

Penn State COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (53.4–51.9).

Final

Penn State

63—68

Northwestern

Northwestern by 5 • 67.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Penn StateTEAM STATNorthwestern

21-48FG20-63

44.0%FG%32.0%

6-193PT6-16

32.0%3PT%38.0%

15-20FT22-27

75.0%FT%81.0%

33Rebounds39

3Offensive Rebounds13

14Assists14

11Turnovers6

3Steals7

10Blocks2

21Fouls16

Player Box Score

Penn State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nick Kern Jr.	Guard	28	7-9	0-0	4-4	7	3	1	1	18
Ace Baldwin Jr.	Guard	39	4-13	1-5	8-9	5	8	2	0	17
Zach Hicks	Forward	36	5-11	3-7	1-2	5	2	0	1	14
D'Marco Dunn	Guard	29	1-5	1-3	1-2	4	0	0	2	4
Qudus Wahab	Forward	27	2-2	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	5	4
Jameel Brown	G	11	1-3	1-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Favour Aire	C	11	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	2
Leo O'Boyle	Forward	5	0-0	0-0	1-3	0	0	0	0	1
Kanye Clary	G	14	0-3	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Boo Buie	Guard	38	4-14	1-4	6-6	5	6	0	0	15
Brooks Barnhizer	Guard	40	3-15	1-3	7-10	9	2	4	2	14
Ryan Langborg	Guard	32	3-11	3-5	5-6	2	1	1	0	14
Nick Martinelli	F	36	5-13	0-2	1-2	8	2	1	0	11
Matthew Nicholson	Center	29	4-7	0-0	3-3	8	3	1	0	11
Luke Hunger	F	12	1-3	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Jordan Clayton	G	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Blake Smith	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.2Possessions67.2

93.8Offensive Efficiency101.2

101.2Defensive Efficiency93.8

-7.4Net Efficiency7.4

50.0%Effective FG%36.5%

54.8%True Shooting %44.8%

16.8%Turnover Rate8.7%

41.7%Free Throw Rate42.9%

39.6%3-Point Rate25.4%

1.27Assist / Turnover2.33

Game Summary

Northwestern won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 67.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.