Buffalo

17-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

85.5%Buffalo

14.5%Northern Illinois

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBuffalo -9.7

PROJECTED TOTAL153.0

MODEL MONEYLINEBuffalo -590

Northern Illinois

9-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBuffalo 81

Projected Total153.0

Projected ScoreNorthern Illinois 72

Team Comparison

BuffaloMetricNorthern Illinois

49.7MMH Power Index29.2

114.9Offensive Efficiency99.7

112.2Defensive Efficiency111.6

2.7Net Efficiency-11.9

0.0Strength of Schedule-2.1

-5.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-28.8

67.9Tempo69.7

56.1%Effective FG%48.5%

16.1%Turnover Rate21.3%

27.6%Offensive Rebound %31.7%

40.4%Free Throw Rate39.6%

1.8Average Margin-8.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Buffalo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY85.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBuffalo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.7–29.2), offensive efficiency (114.9–99.7), net efficiency (2.7–-11.9), strength of schedule (0.0–-2.1).

Northern Illinois COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (111.6–112.2), offensive rebounding (31.7–27.6).

Final

Buffalo

68—72

Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois by 4 • 67.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

BuffaloTEAM STATNorthern Illinois

26-53FG24-55

49.0%FG%44.0%

7-223PT8-15

32.0%3PT%53.0%

9-22FT16-29

41.0%FT%55.0%

32Rebounds39

6Offensive Rebounds11

14Assists8

10Turnovers9

4Steals5

3Blocks6

22Fouls14

Player Box Score

Buffalo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sy Chatman	Forward	34	6-9	0-2	6-12	2	1	0	1	18
Shawn Fulcher	Guard	37	6-13	0-3	1-4	2	6	1	0	13
Jonnivius Smith	Forward	35	4-8	2-3	2-4	12	5	0	0	12
Isaiah Adams	Guard	26	4-8	1-3	0-2	2	1	0	1	9
Ryan Sabol	G	25	2-7	2-7	0-0	2	0	1	0	6
Lloyd McVeigh	Guard	23	2-4	2-3	0-0	4	1	1	0	6
Bryson Wilson	G	15	1-3	0-1	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Zaakir Williamson	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	2

Northern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Xavier Amos	F	36	7-14	3-6	8-13	5	2	0	1	25
Zarique Nutter	F	40	6-16	2-2	3-7	12	1	1	1	17
Will Lovings-Watts	Guard	40	5-10	2-6	0-0	8	1	3	0	12
Zion Russell	G	39	2-5	1-1	3-5	3	2	1	0	8
Yanic Konan Niederhauser	Forward	18	1-6	0-0	2-4	2	0	0	4	4
Harvin Ibarguen	Forward	13	2-3	0-0	0-0	3	2	0	0	4
Ethan Butler	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Oluwasegun Durosinmi	Forward	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.2Possessions67.2

101.2Offensive Efficiency107.1

107.1Defensive Efficiency101.2

-6.0Net Efficiency6.0

55.7%Effective FG%50.9%

53.6%True Shooting %52.3%

14.8%Turnover Rate13.5%

41.5%Free Throw Rate52.7%

41.5%3-Point Rate27.3%

1.40Assist / Turnover0.89

Game Summary

Northern Illinois won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 67.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.