Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

31.3%Missouri State

68.7%Murray State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMurray State -6.2

PROJECTED TOTAL159.4

MODEL MONEYLINEMurray State -219

Murray State

20-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 77

Projected Total159.4

Projected ScoreMurray State 83

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricMurray State

51.1MMH Power Index53.6

110.5Offensive Efficiency115.0

108.4Defensive Efficiency111.0

2.1Net Efficiency4.0

0.5Strength of Schedule3.5

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.5

67.9Tempo72.3

51.8%Effective FG%54.0%

16.4%Turnover Rate16.3%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %32.7%

42.9%Free Throw Rate39.1%

1.4Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Murray State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY68.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMurray State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.6–51.1), offensive efficiency (115.0–110.5), net efficiency (4.0–2.1), strength of schedule (3.5–0.5).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (108.4–111.0), recent form (-2.1–-9.5), offensive rebounding (33.0–32.7).

Final

Missouri State

72—82

Murray State

Murray State by 10 • 67.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATMurray State

27-60FG33-61

45.0%FG%54.0%

7-253PT8-24

28.0%3PT%33.0%

11-16FT8-15

69.0%FT%53.0%

32Rebounds35

9Offensive Rebounds9

12Assists17

9Turnovers8

5Steals8

1Blocks4

11Fouls12

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Matthew Lee	Guard	38	8-13	3-5	3-4	4	7	0	0	22
Chance Moore	G	35	7-15	3-9	4-6	4	0	2	1	21
Cesare Edwards	Center	18	4-7	0-0	2-3	5	0	0	0	10
NJ Benson	F	18	2-4	0-0	2-3	7	0	0	0	6
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	30	2-2	0-0	0-0	5	1	1	0	4
Alston Mason	Guard	27	2-11	0-6	0-0	0	2	2	0	4
Raphe Ayres	Guard	20	1-4	1-3	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Donovan Clay	Guard	14	1-4	0-2	0-0	1	2	0	0	2

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nick Ellington	F	30	10-13	0-0	3-6	5	0	2	2	23
Quincy Anderson	Guard	35	7-13	2-7	0-0	4	3	3	0	16
JaCobi Wood	Guard	40	5-15	2-9	0-2	8	10	0	0	12
Rob Perry	Guard	33	4-10	2-4	0-0	7	3	0	1	10
Justin Morgan	Guard	24	3-4	1-2	2-2	2	0	0	1	9
Malek Abdelgowad	F	10	3-4	0-0	2-3	1	0	3	0	8
Shawn Walker Jr.	Guard	20	1-1	1-1	1-2	4	1	0	0	4
Alden Applewhite	F	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.4Possessions67.4

106.8Offensive Efficiency121.7

121.7Defensive Efficiency106.8

-14.8Net Efficiency14.8

50.8%Effective FG%60.7%

53.3%True Shooting %60.2%

13.3%Turnover Rate11.9%

26.7%Free Throw Rate24.6%

41.7%3-Point Rate39.3%

1.33Assist / Turnover2.13

Game Summary

Murray State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 67.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.