Morehead State

20-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

46.5%Morehead State

53.5%Little Rock

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADLittle Rock -1.5

PROJECTED TOTAL148.7

MODEL MONEYLINELittle Rock -115

Little Rock

12-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMorehead State 74

Projected Total148.7

Projected ScoreLittle Rock 75

Team Comparison

Morehead StateMetricLittle Rock

47.3MMH Power Index44

110.8Offensive Efficiency103.0

110.0Defensive Efficiency108.2

0.8Net Efficiency-5.2

-4.0Strength of Schedule0.5

3.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.7

67.9Tempo68.5

51.3%Effective FG%50.3%

17.3%Turnover Rate18.7%

36.4%Offensive Rebound %32.1%

37.9%Free Throw Rate28.6%

0.5Average Margin-3.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Morehead State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMorehead State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (47.3–44.0), offensive efficiency (110.8–103.0), net efficiency (0.8–-5.2), recent form (3.1–-0.7).

Little Rock COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (108.2–110.0), strength of schedule (0.5–-4.0).

Final

Morehead State

68—69

Little Rock

Little Rock by 1 • 63.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Morehead StateTEAM STATLittle Rock

27-58FG24-56

47.0%FG%43.0%

10-253PT5-15

40.0%3PT%33.0%

4-4FT16-18

100.0%FT%89.0%

33Rebounds32

10Offensive Rebounds11

13Assists12

14Turnovers9

5Steals9

3Blocks5

17Fouls11

Player Box Score

Morehead State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Riley Minix	Forward	40	12-20	3-4	2-2	15	1	3	0	29
Kalil Thomas	Guard	38	7-15	5-10	0-0	3	0	0	0	19
Drew Thelwell	Guard	39	5-11	1-6	2-2	2	8	2	1	13
Eddie Ricks III	F	34	2-6	1-4	0-0	4	4	0	1	5
Zach Iyeyemi	Forward	14	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Jerone Morton	G	21	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Dieonte Miles	Forward	10	0-3	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	1	0
George Marshall	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Little Rock

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
KK Robinson	G	38	6-18	3-7	6-6	7	3	2	0	21
Makhel Mitchell	Forward	29	3-4	0-0	6-7	7	1	0	3	12
Jordan Jefferson	Guard	23	3-7	1-3	4-4	3	0	1	1	11
Bradley Douglas	G	35	4-8	1-3	0-0	4	2	1	0	9
DeAntoni Gordon	Forward	30	4-8	0-1	0-0	3	2	1	0	8
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson	F	21	2-3	0-1	0-0	1	1	2	1	4

Advanced Game Stats

63.3Possessions63.3

107.4Offensive Efficiency109.0

109.0Defensive Efficiency107.4

-1.6Net Efficiency1.6

55.2%Effective FG%47.3%

56.8%True Shooting %53.4%

21.9%Turnover Rate14.4%

6.9%Free Throw Rate32.1%

43.1%3-Point Rate26.8%

0.93Assist / Turnover1.33

Game Summary

Little Rock won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 63.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.