Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

47.3%Arkansas State

52.7%Troy

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTroy -2.1

PROJECTED TOTAL159.8

MODEL MONEYLINETroy -111

Troy

22-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total159.8

Projected ScoreTroy 81

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricTroy

57.7MMH Power Index54.1

113.1Offensive Efficiency112.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.9

7.8Net Efficiency8.7

-1.0Strength of Schedule-2.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency2.0

73.3Tempo70.4

52.7%Effective FG%52.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate17.1%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %35.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.8%

5.8Average Margin6.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.6), strength of schedule (-1.0–-2.2), recent form (15.2–2.0).

Troy COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), net efficiency (8.7–7.8), ball security (17.1–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

82—71

Troy

Arkansas State by 11 • 67.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATTroy

33-67FG27-62

49.0%FG%44.0%

8-173PT5-18

47.0%3PT%28.0%

8-17FT12-15

47.0%FT%80.0%

43Rebounds35

19Offensive Rebounds14

10Assists7

9Turnovers14

9Steals5

5Blocks5

14Fouls17

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	26	7-20	3-5	2-2	6	2	0	0	19
Izaiyah Nelson	F	39	8-11	0-1	2-3	12	1	0	4	18
Freddy Hicks	G	28	7-14	1-1	1-1	6	2	2	1	16
Caleb Fields	Guard	32	7-10	1-1	0-3	5	3	1	0	15
Derrian Ford	G	35	3-5	2-3	3-6	4	1	3	0	11
Avery Felts	Guard	18	1-3	1-3	0-0	0	0	1	0	3
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	12	0-1	0-0	0-2	2	1	1	0	0
Julian Lual	Guard	7	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Zane Butler	Guard	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Lado Laku	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Aamer Muhammad	Guard	28	7-14	4-8	4-5	4	0	0	0	22
Myles Rigsby	G	32	4-12	0-1	4-4	5	3	0	1	12
Tayton Conerway	G	17	6-8	0-1	0-0	2	0	2	0	12
Jackson Fields	F	21	3-11	0-3	3-4	5	1	1	3	9
Christyon Eugene	Guard	28	3-7	1-3	1-2	4	1	0	0	8
Marcus Rigsby Jr.	G	7	2-4	0-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	4
Thomas Dowd	F	26	1-2	0-0	0-0	9	2	0	0	2
Victor Valdes	F	11	1-3	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Randarius Jones	C	18	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Theo Seng	F	12	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.1Possessions67.1

122.2Offensive Efficiency105.8

105.8Defensive Efficiency122.2

16.4Net Efficiency-16.4

55.2%Effective FG%47.6%

54.6%True Shooting %51.4%

13.8%Turnover Rate20.3%

25.4%Free Throw Rate24.2%

25.4%3-Point Rate29.0%

1.11Assist / Turnover0.50

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 67.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.