Valparaiso

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

34.5%Valparaiso

65.5%Missouri State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMissouri State -4.9

PROJECTED TOTAL147.0

MODEL MONEYLINEMissouri State -190

Missouri State

16-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreValparaiso 71

Projected Total147.0

Projected ScoreMissouri State 76

Team Comparison

ValparaisoMetricMissouri State

49.9MMH Power Index51.1

106.6Offensive Efficiency110.5

105.8Defensive Efficiency108.4

0.8Net Efficiency2.1

0.3Strength of Schedule0.5

-0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.1

67.5Tempo67.9

48.7%Effective FG%51.8%

15.6%Turnover Rate16.4%

32.4%Offensive Rebound %33.0%

40.0%Free Throw Rate42.9%

0.5Average Margin1.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Missouri State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY65.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMissouri State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.1–49.9), offensive efficiency (110.5–106.6), net efficiency (2.1–0.8), strength of schedule (0.5–0.3).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (105.8–108.4), recent form (-0.1–-2.1), ball security (15.6–16.4).

Final

Valparaiso

74—82

Missouri State

Missouri State by 8 • 71.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ValparaisoTEAM STATMissouri State

28-76FG31-55

37.0%FG%56.0%

9-263PT5-15

35.0%3PT%33.0%

9-11FT15-26

82.0%FT%58.0%

39Rebounds42

18Offensive Rebounds10

13Assists12

8Turnovers14

5Steals3

2Blocks2

23Fouls13

Player Box Score

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Stafford	G	37	9-25	3-10	3-3	4	1	4	0	24
Cooper Schwieger	F	31	8-15	4-6	2-2	5	1	0	1	22
Jaxon Edwards	G	34	5-8	1-3	1-2	9	1	0	1	12
Darius DeAveiro	Guard	34	3-14	1-4	0-0	3	9	0	0	7
Jerome Palm	F	14	2-3	0-0	2-2	6	0	1	0	6
Kaspar Sepp	F	16	1-3	0-0	0-0	5	1	0	0	2
Ola Ajiboye	F	17	0-1	0-0	1-2	4	0	0	0	1
Jahari Williamson	G	11	0-6	0-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Sherman Weatherspoon IV	G	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chance Moore	G	29	10-14	3-5	2-8	9	0	1	0	25
Matthew Lee	Guard	40	8-18	1-6	2-3	2	8	1	0	19
NJ Benson	F	28	6-9	0-0	6-7	13	2	1	0	18
Donovan Clay	Guard	34	4-6	1-2	2-4	5	2	0	0	11
Cesare Edwards	Center	23	3-5	0-0	3-4	5	0	0	1	9
Raphe Ayres	Guard	17	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	17	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Tyler Bey	Not Available	9	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0
Dawson Carper	Forward	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.3Possessions71.3

103.8Offensive Efficiency115.0

115.0Defensive Efficiency103.8

-11.2Net Efficiency11.2

42.8%Effective FG%60.9%

45.6%True Shooting %60.9%

11.2%Turnover Rate19.6%

14.5%Free Throw Rate47.3%

34.2%3-Point Rate27.3%

1.63Assist / Turnover0.86

Game Summary

Missouri State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 71.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.