Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

54.8%Arkansas State

45.2%South Alabama

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -0.3

PROJECTED TOTAL154.7

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -121

South Alabama

21-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 78

Projected Total154.7

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 77

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricSouth Alabama

57.7MMH Power Index51.4

113.1Offensive Efficiency110.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.9

7.8Net Efficiency6.4

-1.0Strength of Schedule-3.7

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency3.4

73.3Tempo67.4

52.7%Effective FG%53.2%

19.4%Turnover Rate12.8%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %24.9%

39.6%Free Throw Rate39.8%

5.8Average Margin4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY54.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–51.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–6.4), strength of schedule (-1.0–-3.7).

South Alabama COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), shooting efficiency (53.2–52.7), ball security (12.8–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

76—73

South Alabama

Arkansas State by 3 • 65.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATSouth Alabama

27-66FG27-54

41.0%FG%50.0%

7-263PT4-12

27.0%3PT%33.0%

15-22FT15-18

68.0%FT%83.0%

42Rebounds31

17Offensive Rebounds4

11Assists10

7Turnovers6

2Steals4

5Blocks2

15Fouls17

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	36	8-16	3-6	2-2	1	3	0	0	21
Freddy Hicks	G	26	4-6	0-0	4-5	6	4	0	0	12
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	24	5-11	2-6	0-0	3	0	0	0	12
Izaiyah Nelson	F	29	3-7	0-0	3-5	15	1	0	5	9
Derrian Ford	G	28	4-11	1-4	0-1	7	1	1	0	9
Caleb Fields	Guard	29	2-8	0-3	4-7	2	1	1	0	8
Avery Felts	Guard	16	1-2	1-2	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Zane Butler	Guard	4	0-2	0-2	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Julian Lual	Guard	7	0-3	0-3	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Lado Laku	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Samuel Tabe	Guard	32	15-24	0-0	5-6	6	1	0	0	35
Elijah Ormiston	Forward	30	7-9	3-3	1-2	4	1	1	1	18
Marcus Millender	G	40	3-9	0-3	6-6	1	6	1	0	12
Tyrell Jones	Guard	36	1-5	0-1	3-4	6	2	2	0	5
Julian Margrave	F	27	1-1	1-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	3
Isiah Gaiter	Guard	14	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Judah Brown	Forward	11	0-2	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Thomas Howell	Forward	7	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Marshall Kearing	Forward	3	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.6Possessions65.6

115.9Offensive Efficiency111.3

111.3Defensive Efficiency115.9

4.6Net Efficiency-4.6

46.2%Effective FG%53.7%

49.7%True Shooting %58.4%

10.5%Turnover Rate9.3%

33.3%Free Throw Rate33.3%

39.4%3-Point Rate22.2%

1.57Assist / Turnover1.67

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 65.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.