Northern Iowa

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

55.9%Northern Iowa

44.1%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -0.2

PROJECTED TOTAL136.0

MODEL MONEYLINENorthern Iowa -127

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthern Iowa 68

Projected Total136.0

Projected ScoreIllinois State 68

Team Comparison

Northern IowaMetricIllinois State

61MMH Power Index54.3

108.4Offensive Efficiency110.6

96.4Defensive Efficiency101.4

12.0Net Efficiency9.2

2.2Strength of Schedule1.0

13.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

64.1Tempo67.5

54.6%Effective FG%54.3%

14.4%Turnover Rate16.8%

21.9%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

26.2%Free Throw Rate32.0%

7.7Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Northern Iowa HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorthern Iowa holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.0–54.3), defensive efficiency (96.4–101.4), net efficiency (12.0–9.2), strength of schedule (2.2–1.0).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (110.6–108.4), offensive rebounding (28.3–21.9), free throw rate (32.0–26.2).

Final

Northern Iowa

73—81

Illinois State

Illinois State by 8 • 65.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northern IowaTEAM STATIllinois State

27-63FG27-51

43.0%FG%53.0%

4-203PT8-18

20.0%3PT%44.0%

15-25FT19-25

60.0%FT%76.0%

29Rebounds38

13Offensive Rebounds8

13Assists17

4Turnovers11

9Steals3

4Blocks1

22Fouls18

Player Box Score

Northern Iowa

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nate Heise	G	34	9-13	1-4	1-4	5	3	2	1	20
Bowen Born	Guard	28	4-16	2-8	4-4	2	4	3	0	14
Tytan Anderson	Guard	28	4-8	0-0	5-7	4	2	2	2	13
Trey Campbell	G	19	3-5	1-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	7
Cole Henry	Forward	11	3-4	0-0	0-0	3	2	0	0	6
Michael Duax	F	18	2-5	0-0	1-3	2	1	1	0	5
Jacob Hutson	Center	22	1-4	0-1	2-5	1	0	0	0	4
Kyle Pock	F	18	1-5	0-2	2-2	3	0	0	0	4
RJ Taylor	G	11	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	0
Landon Wolf	G	11	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	1	1	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	37	7-10	3-5	4-5	2	4	1	0	21
Myles Foster	Forward	35	6-12	0-0	6-6	14	2	0	1	18
Kendall Lewis	Forward	34	7-11	1-3	2-2	10	2	0	0	17
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	33	3-8	2-5	3-4	3	3	0	0	11
Dalton Banks	Guard	28	3-6	2-4	3-6	1	4	1	0	11
Chase Walker	F	8	1-2	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	0	3
Jordan Davis	Guard	13	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	1	0	0
Luke Kasubke	Guard	12	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.9Possessions65.9

110.8Offensive Efficiency122.9

122.9Defensive Efficiency110.8

-12.1Net Efficiency12.1

46.0%Effective FG%60.8%

48.7%True Shooting %64.4%

6.1%Turnover Rate16.7%

39.7%Free Throw Rate49.0%

31.7%3-Point Rate35.3%

3.25Assist / Turnover1.55

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 65.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.