Troy

22-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

28.7%Troy

71.3%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -6.1

PROJECTED TOTAL159.8

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -248

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTroy 77

Projected Total159.8

Projected ScoreArkansas State 83

Team Comparison

TroyMetricArkansas State

54.1MMH Power Index57.7

112.6Offensive Efficiency113.1

103.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

8.7Net Efficiency7.8

-2.2Strength of Schedule-1.0

2.0Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.4Tempo73.3

52.1%Effective FG%52.7%

17.1%Turnover Rate19.4%

35.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

36.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

6.1Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.6), strength of schedule (-1.0–-2.2), recent form (15.2–2.0).

Troy COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), net efficiency (8.7–7.8), ball security (17.1–19.4).

Final

Troy

71—79

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 8 • 72.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

TroyTEAM STATArkansas State

26-65FG24-48

40.0%FG%50.0%

7-193PT11-26

37.0%3PT%42.0%

12-15FT20-25

80.0%FT%80.0%

30Rebounds38

12Offensive Rebounds8

10Assists13

13Turnovers19

15Steals9

3Blocks9

17Fouls16

Player Box Score

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Victor Valdes	F	28	6-12	3-6	1-2	4	3	3	0	16
Tayton Conerway	G	25	7-11	1-2	1-3	2	2	4	1	16
Aamer Muhammad	Guard	26	5-12	2-4	2-2	1	0	3	0	14
Myles Rigsby	G	32	3-10	0-1	5-5	4	1	0	1	11
Christyon Eugene	Guard	30	3-11	1-3	3-3	3	1	1	1	10
Theo Seng	F	21	1-4	0-2	0-0	3	2	1	0	2
Marcus Rigsby Jr.	G	10	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Thomas Dowd	F	18	0-1	0-1	0-0	5	1	1	0	0
Randarius Jones	C	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	2	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	35	4-11	3-6	6-6	6	3	2	1	17
Freddy Hicks	G	36	3-7	0-0	8-10	12	1	1	4	14
Izaiyah Nelson	F	34	4-4	0-0	5-7	8	0	2	4	13
Caleb Fields	Guard	35	4-7	3-5	1-2	5	9	0	0	12
Avery Felts	Guard	27	4-7	2-5	0-0	2	0	2	0	10
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	19	4-8	2-6	0-0	1	0	2	0	10
Julian Lual	Guard	8	1-2	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Zane Butler	Guard	6	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.0Possessions72.0

98.6Offensive Efficiency109.7

109.7Defensive Efficiency98.6

-11.1Net Efficiency11.1

45.4%Effective FG%61.5%

49.2%True Shooting %66.0%

17.8%Turnover Rate26.8%

23.1%Free Throw Rate52.1%

29.2%3-Point Rate54.2%

0.77Assist / Turnover0.68

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 72.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.