South Alabama

21-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

23.0%South Alabama

77.0%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -8.5

PROJECTED TOTAL154.7

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -335

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 73

Projected Total154.7

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Team Comparison

South AlabamaMetricArkansas State

51.4MMH Power Index57.7

110.3Offensive Efficiency113.1

103.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

6.4Net Efficiency7.8

-3.7Strength of Schedule-1.0

3.4Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

67.4Tempo73.3

53.2%Effective FG%52.7%

12.8%Turnover Rate19.4%

24.9%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

39.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

4.3Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–51.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–6.4), strength of schedule (-1.0–-3.7).

South Alabama COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), shooting efficiency (53.2–52.7), ball security (12.8–19.4).

Final

South Alabama

78—95

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 17 • 72.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

South AlabamaTEAM STATArkansas State

26-52FG34-65

50.0%FG%52.0%

7-123PT12-29

58.0%3PT%41.0%

19-23FT15-19

83.0%FT%79.0%

28Rebounds34

3Offensive Rebounds8

9Assists23

13Turnovers6

4Steals5

3Blocks5

16Fouls21

Player Box Score

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Samuel Tabe	Guard	39	9-17	0-0	9-10	7	0	0	0	27
Marcus Millender	G	23	8-11	5-6	6-7	2	1	0	0	27
Tyrell Jones	Guard	28	2-6	0-0	3-4	4	4	4	0	7
Julian Margrave	F	26	2-4	2-4	0-0	1	0	0	0	6
Thomas Howell	Forward	21	3-6	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	2	6
Isiah Gaiter	Guard	29	1-5	0-0	1-2	3	3	0	1	3
Judah Brown	Forward	16	1-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Elijah Ormiston	Forward	15	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Marshall Kearing	Forward	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Derrian Ford	G	39	8-14	6-10	1-2	6	2	0	0	23
Freddy Hicks	G	15	3-4	1-2	7-8	4	3	1	1	14
Julian Lual	Guard	22	6-13	1-5	0-0	3	1	0	1	13
Taryn Todd	Guard	20	5-9	1-1	0-1	3	1	1	1	11
Caleb Fields	Guard	36	3-8	1-2	3-4	5	11	0	0	10
Izaiyah Nelson	F	16	3-3	0-0	2-2	5	0	1	1	8
Zane Butler	Guard	3	2-2	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	5
Lado Laku	Forward	5	1-1	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	4
Avery Felts	Guard	28	1-6	1-5	0-0	5	4	1	0	3
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	13	1-4	0-3	0-0	0	1	1	1	2
Noah McDavid	Guard	3	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

72.5Possessions72.5

107.6Offensive Efficiency131.0

131.0Defensive Efficiency107.6

-23.4Net Efficiency23.4

56.7%Effective FG%61.5%

62.0%True Shooting %64.2%

17.8%Turnover Rate8.3%

44.2%Free Throw Rate29.2%

23.1%3-Point Rate44.6%

0.69Assist / Turnover3.83

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 17 points. The game played at approximately 72.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.