Northern Illinois

9-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

2.2%Northern Illinois

97.8%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -23.9

PROJECTED TOTAL155.0

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -4445

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthern Illinois 66

Projected Total155.0

Projected ScoreToledo 89

Team Comparison

Northern IllinoisMetricToledo

29.2MMH Power Index58.8

99.7Offensive Efficiency116.0

111.6Defensive Efficiency109.6

-11.9Net Efficiency6.4

-2.1Strength of Schedule2.3

-28.8Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

69.7Tempo69.8

48.5%Effective FG%55.1%

21.3%Turnover Rate14.6%

31.7%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

39.6%Free Throw Rate30.3%

-8.3Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY97.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–29.2), offensive efficiency (116.0–99.7), defensive efficiency (109.6–111.6), net efficiency (6.4–-11.9).

Northern Illinois COUNTERS WITHoffensive rebounding (31.7–30.4), free throw rate (39.6–30.3).

Final

Northern Illinois

75—72

Toledo

Northern Illinois by 3 • 64.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northern IllinoisTEAM STATToledo

29-57FG30-61

51.0%FG%49.0%

10-233PT6-20

43.0%3PT%30.0%

7-11FT6-12

64.0%FT%50.0%

36Rebounds29

10Offensive Rebounds8

14Assists22

12Turnovers6

3Steals3

4Blocks1

12Fouls16

Player Box Score

Northern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
David Coit	G	40	10-25	6-12	1-1	1	5	0	0	27
Will Lovings-Watts	Guard	30	5-9	3-5	1-2	11	1	0	0	14
Oluwasegun Durosinmi	Forward	17	6-6	0-0	0-0	6	0	0	1	12
Zion Russell	G	40	4-6	1-3	0-2	5	5	1	0	9
Yanic Konan Niederhauser	Forward	27	2-6	0-1	2-2	3	0	1	2	6
Harvin Ibarguen	Forward	28	2-4	0-2	1-2	6	2	1	1	5
Steven Tipton	G	10	0-0	0-0	2-2	2	1	0	0	2
Ethan Butler	F	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyler Cochran	G	31	12-17	2-4	1-2	6	3	2	0	27
Dante Maddox Jr.	Guard	32	5-12	2-7	1-2	9	4	0	0	13
Javan Simmons	F	33	5-7	0-0	2-4	5	1	0	1	12
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	23	3-8	2-4	0-0	1	3	0	0	8
Ra'Heim Moss	Guard	22	4-8	0-2	0-0	3	3	1	0	8
Sonny Wilson	G	25	1-5	0-1	0-0	1	5	0	0	2
Sam Lewis	G	14	0-2	0-1	2-2	1	2	0	0	2
Bryce Ford	G	13	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Ben Wight	Forward	7	0-0	0-0	0-2	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.5Possessions64.5

116.3Offensive Efficiency111.6

111.6Defensive Efficiency116.3

4.7Net Efficiency-4.7

59.6%Effective FG%54.1%

60.3%True Shooting %54.0%

18.7%Turnover Rate9.3%

19.3%Free Throw Rate19.7%

40.4%3-Point Rate32.8%

1.17Assist / Turnover3.67

Game Summary

Northern Illinois won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 64.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.