Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

29.6%Missouri State

70.4%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -7.6

PROJECTED TOTAL146.9

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -238

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 70

Projected Total146.9

Projected ScoreIllinois State 77

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricIllinois State

51.1MMH Power Index54.3

110.5Offensive Efficiency110.6

108.4Defensive Efficiency101.4

2.1Net Efficiency9.2

0.5Strength of Schedule1.0

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

67.9Tempo67.5

51.8%Effective FG%54.3%

16.4%Turnover Rate16.8%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

42.9%Free Throw Rate32.0%

1.4Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–51.1), offensive efficiency (110.6–110.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–108.4), net efficiency (9.2–2.1).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-2.1–-4.4), ball security (16.4–16.8), offensive rebounding (33.0–28.3).

Final

Missouri State

74—75

Illinois State

Illinois State by 1 • 63.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATIllinois State

32-61FG28-61

52.0%FG%46.0%

5-203PT7-22

25.0%3PT%32.0%

5-6FT12-14

83.0%FT%86.0%

36Rebounds28

12Offensive Rebounds10

12Assists18

11Turnovers6

4Steals5

2Blocks3

14Fouls9

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alston Mason	Guard	38	8-16	3-9	2-2	1	5	1	0	21
Donovan Clay	Guard	37	8-12	2-3	3-4	7	2	0	0	21
NJ Benson	F	36	10-14	0-0	0-0	14	1	1	1	20
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	33	6-8	0-0	0-0	5	1	1	0	12
Raphe Ayres	Guard	25	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	2	0	0	0
Matthew Lee	Guard	12	0-4	0-2	0-0	1	1	1	0	0
Chance Moore	G	11	0-5	0-4	0-0	4	0	0	1	0
Cesare Edwards	Center	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Tyler Bey	Not Available	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	36	8-14	2-5	2-2	2	4	0	0	20
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	32	8-15	4-10	0-0	1	2	1	0	20
Myles Foster	Forward	34	7-13	0-0	2-2	11	2	0	2	16
Kendall Lewis	Forward	35	2-6	0-2	6-8	10	2	1	1	10
Dalton Banks	Guard	30	2-10	0-2	2-2	1	6	2	0	6
Luke Kasubke	Guard	18	1-3	1-3	0-0	0	0	1	0	3
Chase Walker	F	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	2	0	0	0
Jordan Davis	Guard	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.3Possessions63.3

116.9Offensive Efficiency118.5

118.5Defensive Efficiency116.9

-1.6Net Efficiency1.6

56.6%Effective FG%51.6%

57.9%True Shooting %55.4%

17.5%Turnover Rate9.4%

9.8%Free Throw Rate23.0%

32.8%3-Point Rate36.1%

1.09Assist / Turnover3.00

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 63.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.