Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

47.0%Arkansas State

53.0%App State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADApp State -1.8

PROJECTED TOTAL150.7

MODEL MONEYLINEApp State -113

App State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 74

Projected Total150.7

Projected ScoreApp State 76

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricApp State

57.7MMH Power Index54.2

113.1Offensive Efficiency110.9

105.3Defensive Efficiency101.7

7.8Net Efficiency9.2

-1.0Strength of Schedule-4.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency7.0

73.3Tempo64.9

52.7%Effective FG%51.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate15.2%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %34.2%

39.6%Free Throw Rate39.8%

5.8Average Margin6.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.2), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.9), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.2), recent form (15.2–7.0).

App State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.7–105.3), net efficiency (9.2–7.8), ball security (15.2–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

57—80

App State

App State by 23 • 69.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATApp State

24-68FG31-63

35.0%FG%49.0%

5-263PT8-17

19.0%3PT%47.0%

4-14FT10-12

29.0%FT%83.0%

38Rebounds48

13Offensive Rebounds9

7Assists12

8Turnovers10

8Steals4

1Blocks8

14Fouls13

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	27	6-17	0-5	2-5	3	2	0	0	14
Avery Felts	Guard	30	5-10	3-8	0-1	3	2	2	0	13
Derrian Ford	G	30	3-9	1-4	0-0	5	2	0	0	7
Izaiyah Nelson	F	28	3-8	0-1	1-3	10	0	2	0	7
Caleb Fields	Guard	14	2-7	0-2	0-0	1	1	1	0	4
Freddy Hicks	G	10	2-2	0-0	0-2	1	0	1	0	4
Zane Butler	Guard	10	1-4	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Julian Lual	Guard	15	1-4	0-1	0-1	4	0	1	0	2
Lado Laku	Forward	11	1-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Noah McDavid	Guard	5	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	0	1
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	20	0-5	0-3	0-0	2	0	1	1	0

App State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tre'Von Spillers	F	35	5-10	0-0	5-6	15	1	2	3	15
Donovan Gregory	Forward	29	5-10	3-3	2-2	5	4	0	1	15
CJ Huntley	Forward	30	5-7	2-4	0-0	9	0	0	1	12
Terence Harcum	Guard	28	4-12	1-6	1-1	1	2	0	0	10
Justin Abson	F	12	3-3	0-0	2-2	4	0	0	1	8
Xavion Brown	Guard	24	3-7	0-0	0-0	7	2	1	2	6
Myles Tate	Guard	23	3-6	0-0	0-1	1	3	0	0	6
Jordan Marsh	G	7	2-3	1-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	5
Christopher Mantis	Forward	11	1-4	1-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
Bryant Greene	Guard	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.7Possessions69.7

81.8Offensive Efficiency114.8

114.8Defensive Efficiency81.8

-33.0Net Efficiency33.0

39.0%Effective FG%55.6%

38.2%True Shooting %58.2%

11.5%Turnover Rate14.3%

20.6%Free Throw Rate19.0%

38.2%3-Point Rate27.0%

0.88Assist / Turnover1.20

Game Summary

App State won by 23 points. The game played at approximately 69.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.