Troy

22-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

50.4%Troy

49.6%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -0.3

PROJECTED TOTAL150.3

MODEL MONEYLINETroy -102

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTroy 75

Projected Total150.3

Projected ScoreTexas State 75

Team Comparison

TroyMetricTexas State

54.1MMH Power Index49.4

112.6Offensive Efficiency107.7

103.9Defensive Efficiency103.4

8.7Net Efficiency4.3

-2.2Strength of Schedule-4.7

2.0Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

70.4Tempo68.6

52.1%Effective FG%51.3%

17.1%Turnover Rate18.4%

35.3%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

36.8%Free Throw Rate36.0%

6.1Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Troy HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTroy holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.1–49.4), offensive efficiency (112.6–107.7), net efficiency (8.7–4.3), strength of schedule (-2.2–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–103.9), recent form (9.1–2.0).

Final

Troy

79—82

Texas State

Texas State by 3 • 78.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

TroyTEAM STATTexas State

25-54FG29-63

46.0%FG%46.0%

6-203PT3-14

30.0%3PT%21.0%

23-32FT21-33

72.0%FT%64.0%

33Rebounds42

9Offensive Rebounds16

10Assists14

16Turnovers17

13Steals10

3Blocks3

23Fouls21

Player Box Score

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tayton Conerway	G	26	3-10	0-1	8-10	5	2	3	0	14
Myles Rigsby	G	28	4-6	1-3	3-7	6	0	2	0	12
Aamer Muhammad	Guard	29	4-11	1-5	2-2	2	2	2	0	11
Christyon Eugene	Guard	38	4-10	0-3	2-2	4	1	1	1	10
Victor Valdes	F	32	3-7	1-2	2-3	3	3	1	2	9
Thomas Dowd	F	30	2-4	1-3	3-4	7	1	3	0	8
Randarius Jones	C	12	2-2	0-0	3-4	1	1	0	0	7
Marcus Rigsby Jr.	G	15	2-2	2-2	0-0	0	0	1	0	6
Theo Seng	F	15	1-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	2

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Davion Sykes	G	37	10-15	0-1	10-15	12	3	1	0	30
Dontae Horne	G	25	6-11	0-1	5-6	4	7	1	0	17
Dylan Dawson	Guard	39	2-7	1-3	2-3	0	2	3	0	7
Brandon Love	Forward	22	3-6	0-0	1-2	4	1	1	1	7
Jordan Mason	G	38	2-9	2-4	0-0	5	0	1	0	6
Christian Turner	Forward	28	2-3	0-0	0-1	2	1	0	0	4
Chris Nix	Forward	10	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	4
Joshua O'Garro	G	8	2-4	0-0	0-3	5	0	1	0	4
Coleton Benson	G	16	0-6	0-5	3-3	1	0	2	1	3
Elijah Tate	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

78.0Possessions78.0

101.3Offensive Efficiency105.1

105.1Defensive Efficiency101.3

-3.8Net Efficiency3.8

51.9%Effective FG%48.4%

57.1%True Shooting %52.1%

21.0%Turnover Rate21.3%

59.3%Free Throw Rate52.4%

37.0%3-Point Rate22.2%

0.63Assist / Turnover0.82

Game Summary

Texas State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 78.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.