Toledo

19-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

62.4%Toledo

37.6%Buffalo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -1.9

PROJECTED TOTAL159.3

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -166

Buffalo

17-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreToledo 81

Projected Total159.3

Projected ScoreBuffalo 79

Team Comparison

ToledoMetricBuffalo

58.8MMH Power Index49.7

116.0Offensive Efficiency114.9

109.6Defensive Efficiency112.2

6.4Net Efficiency2.7

2.3Strength of Schedule0.0

10.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-5.9

69.8Tempo67.9

55.1%Effective FG%56.1%

14.6%Turnover Rate16.1%

30.4%Offensive Rebound %27.6%

30.3%Free Throw Rate40.4%

4.5Average Margin1.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY62.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–49.7), offensive efficiency (116.0–114.9), defensive efficiency (109.6–112.2), net efficiency (6.4–2.7).

Buffalo COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (56.1–55.1), free throw rate (40.4–30.3).

Final

Toledo

85—79

Buffalo

Toledo by 6 • 74.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ToledoTEAM STATBuffalo

28-65FG31-63

43.0%FG%49.0%

2-93PT6-20

22.0%3PT%30.0%

27-30FT11-11

90.0%FT%100.0%

36Rebounds33

14Offensive Rebounds10

11Assists18

8Turnovers17

8Steals4

—Blocks12

13Fouls22

Player Box Score

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Sonny Wilson	G	34	5-8	1-2	9-9	9	1	2	20
Tyler Cochran	G	34	9-16	0-2	0-1	3	5	2	18
Dante Maddox Jr.	Guard	37	6-12	1-5	4-4	3	3	2	17
Javan Simmons	F	32	3-9	0-0	8-8	4	0	0	14
Ra'Heim Moss	Guard	34	4-13	0-0	3-4	7	2	2	11
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	13	0-3	0-0	3-4	2	0	0	3
Ben Wight	Forward	6	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	2
Sam Lewis	G	6	0-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0
Bryce Ford	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Buffalo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sy Chatman	Forward	39	8-17	1-4	8-8	10	3	1	3	25
Isaiah Adams	Guard	39	8-14	2-4	1-1	7	5	1	0	19
Shawn Fulcher	Guard	32	4-12	1-5	2-2	0	4	2	1	11
Zaakir Williamson	F	21	5-6	0-0	0-0	4	2	0	2	10
Bryson Wilson	G	14	3-4	1-1	0-0	3	1	0	2	7
Ryan Sabol	G	31	2-7	1-5	0-0	2	2	0	0	5
Jonnivius Smith	Forward	19	1-2	0-0	0-0	7	1	0	4	2
Lloyd McVeigh	Guard	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

74.3Possessions74.3

114.4Offensive Efficiency106.3

106.3Defensive Efficiency114.4

8.1Net Efficiency-8.1

44.6%Effective FG%54.0%

53.6%True Shooting %57.9%

10.9%Turnover Rate22.6%

46.2%Free Throw Rate17.5%

13.8%3-Point Rate31.7%

1.38Assist / Turnover1.06

Game Summary

Toledo won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 74.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.