Penn State

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.4%Penn State

80.6%Minnesota

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMinnesota -10.5

PROJECTED TOTAL146.3

MODEL MONEYLINEMinnesota -415

Minnesota

15-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScorePenn State 68

Projected Total146.3

Projected ScoreMinnesota 78

Team Comparison

Penn StateMetricMinnesota

42.3MMH Power Index50.5

109.2Offensive Efficiency109.1

117.6Defensive Efficiency107.7

-8.4Net Efficiency1.4

5.3Strength of Schedule3.2

-20.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.6

67.5Tempo63.6

53.4%Effective FG%54.1%

15.6%Turnover Rate16.5%

25.6%Offensive Rebound %26.5%

34.6%Free Throw Rate36.9%

-5.7Average Margin0.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Minnesota HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMinnesota holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (50.5–42.3), defensive efficiency (107.7–117.6), net efficiency (1.4–-8.4), recent form (-6.6–-20.8).

Penn State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (109.2–109.1), strength of schedule (5.3–3.2), ball security (15.6–16.5).

Final

Penn State

70—75

Minnesota

Minnesota by 5 • 68.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Penn StateTEAM STATMinnesota

25-56FG23-50

45.0%FG%46.0%

11-233PT5-20

48.0%3PT%25.0%

9-11FT24-27

82.0%FT%89.0%

31Rebounds30

9Offensive Rebounds7

18Assists15

17Turnovers12

7Steals11

3Blocks8

23Fouls15

Player Box Score

Penn State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Puff Johnson	G	33	7-10	4-5	1-1	3	1	0	0	19
Ace Baldwin Jr.	Guard	40	5-11	3-5	4-5	6	8	2	0	17
Qudus Wahab	Forward	30	5-9	0-0	1-1	6	1	3	2	11
Nick Kern Jr.	Guard	23	4-6	0-0	0-0	4	2	0	0	8
Zach Hicks	Forward	32	2-9	2-6	0-0	3	1	0	1	6
Leo O'Boyle	Forward	17	2-5	2-5	0-0	1	0	1	0	6
D'Marco Dunn	Guard	12	0-3	0-1	2-2	0	1	1	0	2
RayQuawndis Mitchell	Guard	9	0-2	0-0	1-2	1	3	0	0	1
Jameel Brown	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Minnesota

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cam Christie	Guard	39	5-14	1-4	8-8	2	2	1	1	19
Elijah Hawkins	Guard	40	5-10	3-6	5-6	2	8	2	0	18
Mike Mitchell Jr.	Guard	37	4-10	1-6	2-3	5	1	5	0	11
Parker Fox	Forward	28	5-6	0-0	1-2	6	0	1	4	11
Dawson Garcia	Forward	24	2-6	0-3	4-4	5	2	1	1	8
Pharrel Payne	F	24	2-2	0-0	4-4	3	2	1	2	8
Joshua Ola-Joseph	F	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Ihnen	F	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.5Possessions68.5

102.2Offensive Efficiency109.5

109.5Defensive Efficiency102.2

-7.3Net Efficiency7.3

54.5%Effective FG%51.0%

57.2%True Shooting %59.7%

24.6%Turnover Rate17.7%

19.6%Free Throw Rate54.0%

41.1%3-Point Rate40.0%

1.06Assist / Turnover1.25

Game Summary

Minnesota won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 68.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.