Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

49.5%Illinois State

50.5%Valparaiso

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -0.2

PROJECTED TOTAL143.6

MODEL MONEYLINEValparaiso -102

Valparaiso

18-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 72

Projected Total143.6

Projected ScoreValparaiso 72

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricValparaiso

54.3MMH Power Index49.9

110.6Offensive Efficiency106.6

101.4Defensive Efficiency105.8

9.2Net Efficiency0.8

1.0Strength of Schedule0.3

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

67.5Tempo67.5

54.3%Effective FG%48.7%

16.8%Turnover Rate15.6%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %32.4%

32.0%Free Throw Rate40.0%

6.2Average Margin0.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–49.9), offensive efficiency (110.6–106.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–105.8), net efficiency (9.2–0.8).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-0.1–-4.4), ball security (15.6–16.8), offensive rebounding (32.4–28.3).

Final

Illinois State

72—75

Valparaiso

Valparaiso by 3 • 62.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATValparaiso

30-56FG31-59

54.0%FG%53.0%

8-213PT10-25

38.0%3PT%40.0%

4-5FT3-6

80.0%FT%50.0%

26Rebounds31

4Offensive Rebounds8

19Assists14

8Turnovers9

5Steals5

3Blocks—

11Fouls12

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kendall Lewis	Forward	37	8-12	0-2	1-1	9	2	1	1	17
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	36	6-9	5-7	0-0	4	5	2	0	17
Myles Foster	Forward	26	7-12	0-0	1-2	5	3	0	1	15
Dalton Banks	Guard	30	3-6	1-2	2-2	0	5	1	0	9
Johnny Kinziger	G	37	3-12	2-8	0-0	1	2	1	1	8
Chase Walker	F	11	3-3	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	6
Luke Kasubke	Guard	10	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Ty Pence	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Lieb	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jordan Davis	Guard	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Cooper Schwieger	F	39	12-17	1-3	3-5	5	1	0	28
Isaiah Stafford	G	34	8-13	4-8	0-0	8	3	2	20
Connor Barrett	Guard	25	3-6	3-6	0-0	1	0	1	9
Jerome Palm	F	25	4-7	0-0	0-0	4	4	0	8
Jahari Williamson	G	26	3-9	1-3	0-0	2	2	2	7
Sherman Weatherspoon IV	G	15	1-5	1-5	0-0	1	0	0	3
Darius DeAveiro	Guard	20	0-2	0-0	0-0	4	3	0	0
Kaspar Sepp	F	16	0-0	0-0	0-1	4	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.7Possessions62.7

114.8Offensive Efficiency119.6

119.6Defensive Efficiency114.8

-4.8Net Efficiency4.8

60.7%Effective FG%61.0%

61.7%True Shooting %60.6%

12.8%Turnover Rate14.3%

8.9%Free Throw Rate10.2%

37.5%3-Point Rate42.4%

2.38Assist / Turnover1.56

Game Summary

Valparaiso won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 62.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.