Northwestern

15-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

10.8%Northwestern

89.2%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMichigan State -15.0

PROJECTED TOTAL147.2

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -826

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 66

Projected Total147.2

Projected ScoreMichigan State 81

Team Comparison

NorthwesternMetricMichigan State

55.4MMH Power Index69.8

111.6Offensive Efficiency117.0

109.8Defensive Efficiency101.5

1.8Net Efficiency15.5

5.6Strength of Schedule7.2

-2.7Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

65.6Tempo67.3

51.9%Effective FG%54.1%

13.0%Turnover Rate17.2%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

34.8%Free Throw Rate36.6%

1.2Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY89.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–55.4), offensive efficiency (117.0–111.6), defensive efficiency (101.5–109.8), net efficiency (15.5–1.8).

Northwestern COUNTERS WITHball security (13.0–17.2).

Final

Northwestern

49—53

Michigan State

Michigan State by 4 • 58.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NorthwesternTEAM STATMichigan State

18-51FG19-60

35.0%FG%32.0%

7-213PT2-17

33.0%3PT%12.0%

6-10FT13-20

60.0%FT%65.0%

35Rebounds46

10Offensive Rebounds19

9Assists11

12Turnovers8

6Steals6

5Blocks4

17Fouls14

Player Box Score

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Boo Buie	Guard	39	6-13	3-6	0-0	3	1	1	0	15
Nick Martinelli	F	38	5-12	0-2	2-3	8	2	1	2	12
Brooks Barnhizer	Guard	39	4-11	2-4	1-2	12	3	3	1	11
Ryan Langborg	Guard	39	2-12	2-8	1-2	4	1	0	1	7
Blake Smith	G	17	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	2
Luke Hunger	F	13	0-2	0-1	2-3	2	0	0	0	2
Blake Preston	Forward	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	2	0	0	0
Justin Mullins	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyson Walker	Guard	38	8-21	0-3	3-4	5	5	2	0	19
Malik Hall	Forward	37	6-13	0-1	3-4	17	2	0	2	15
Tre Holloman	G	25	3-8	2-6	4-4	4	0	1	0	12
AJ Hoggard	Guard	32	2-7	0-2	2-4	4	4	3	0	6
Mady Sissoko	Center	9	0-0	0-0	1-2	4	0	0	0	1
Jaden Akins	Guard	24	0-7	0-4	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Jaxon Kohler	F	13	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Xavier Booker	C	10	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	1	0
Carson Cooper	C	8	0-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Coen Carr	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-2	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

58.2Possessions58.2

84.2Offensive Efficiency91.1

91.1Defensive Efficiency84.2

-6.9Net Efficiency6.9

42.2%Effective FG%33.3%

43.9%True Shooting %38.1%

20.8%Turnover Rate13.7%

19.6%Free Throw Rate33.3%

41.2%3-Point Rate28.3%

0.75Assist / Turnover1.38

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 58.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.