Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

47.0%Arkansas State

53.0%App State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADApp State -1.8

PROJECTED TOTAL150.7

MODEL MONEYLINEApp State -113

App State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 74

Projected Total150.7

Projected ScoreApp State 76

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricApp State

57.7MMH Power Index54.2

113.1Offensive Efficiency110.9

105.3Defensive Efficiency101.7

7.8Net Efficiency9.2

-1.0Strength of Schedule-4.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency7.0

73.3Tempo64.9

52.7%Effective FG%51.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate15.2%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %34.2%

39.6%Free Throw Rate39.8%

5.8Average Margin6.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.2), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.9), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.2), recent form (15.2–7.0).

App State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.7–105.3), net efficiency (9.2–7.8), ball security (15.2–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

67—65

App State

Arkansas State by 2 • 58.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATApp State

26-59FG26-53

44.0%FG%49.0%

5-153PT4-12

33.0%3PT%33.0%

10-12FT9-13

83.0%FT%69.0%

36Rebounds27

14Offensive Rebounds7

8Assists10

8Turnovers5

3Steals3

1Blocks3

14Fouls12

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Caleb Fields	Guard	38	7-19	1-5	8-9	3	6	1	0	23
Freddy Hicks	G	29	8-9	1-2	2-2	7	2	0	0	19
Taryn Todd	Guard	29	4-14	1-3	0-1	5	0	0	0	9
Izaiyah Nelson	F	35	4-9	0-0	0-0	13	0	0	1	8
Derrian Ford	G	34	2-4	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	5
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	16	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Avery Felts	Guard	19	0-3	0-3	0-0	1	0	2	0	0

App State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Terence Harcum	Guard	36	5-16	3-8	2-2	1	1	0	0	15
Myles Tate	Guard	24	5-10	1-2	0-0	2	2	1	0	11
Justin Abson	F	33	3-3	0-0	4-6	7	1	0	1	10
Donovan Gregory	Forward	32	3-10	0-1	3-4	3	4	1	1	9
Tre'Von Spillers	F	22	3-4	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	6
Jordan Marsh	G	8	3-4	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	6
Xavion Brown	Guard	28	2-3	0-0	0-1	4	2	0	1	4
CJ Huntley	Forward	9	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
Christopher Mantis	Forward	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

58.0Possessions58.0

115.5Offensive Efficiency112.1

112.1Defensive Efficiency115.5

3.4Net Efficiency-3.4

48.3%Effective FG%52.8%

51.8%True Shooting %54.9%

13.6%Turnover Rate8.7%

20.3%Free Throw Rate24.5%

25.4%3-Point Rate22.6%

1.00Assist / Turnover2.00

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 58.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.