Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

52.3%Arkansas State

47.7%James Madison

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -0.5

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -110

James Madison

18-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreJames Madison 78

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricJames Madison

57.7MMH Power Index52.3

113.1Offensive Efficiency110.5

105.3Defensive Efficiency109.4

7.8Net Efficiency1.1

-1.0Strength of Schedule1.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency7.9

73.3Tempo67.5

52.7%Effective FG%53.3%

19.4%Turnover Rate17.3%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %30.5%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.6%

5.8Average Margin0.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–52.3), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.5), defensive efficiency (105.3–109.4), net efficiency (7.8–1.1).

James Madison COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.2–-1.0), shooting efficiency (53.3–52.7), ball security (17.3–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

71—91

James Madison

James Madison by 20 • 65.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATJames Madison

21-59FG35-56

36.0%FG%63.0%

7-253PT11-19

28.0%3PT%58.0%

22-29FT10-15

76.0%FT%67.0%

36Rebounds30

17Offensive Rebounds5

14Assists16

10Turnovers7

3Steals5

4Blocks5

13Fouls18

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Freddy Hicks	G	38	6-12	1-4	11-13	7	4	1	0	24
Derrian Ford	G	36	4-11	3-7	1-2	2	0	0	0	12
Izaiyah Nelson	F	32	4-8	0-1	4-6	12	0	0	4	12
Caleb Fields	Guard	39	2-12	1-5	5-6	4	5	0	0	10
Taryn Todd	Guard	25	4-11	1-5	1-2	4	5	2	0	10
Avery Felts	Guard	21	1-3	1-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	3
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	8	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Zane Butler	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

James Madison

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Xavier Brown	G	34	8-11	5-6	0-0	10	3	2	0	21
Terrence Edwards Jr.	Guard	33	7-15	1-3	4-4	4	5	0	0	19
Jaylen Carey	F	15	6-7	0-1	1-2	3	1	1	0	13
Noah Freidel	Guard	28	4-9	2-5	2-2	1	2	0	1	12
T.J. Bickerstaff	Not Available	24	4-5	0-0	1-2	5	3	0	0	9
Raekwon Horton	Forward	22	2-2	0-0	2-2	1	0	1	0	6
Michael Green III	Guard	13	2-2	2-2	0-0	0	2	0	0	6
Julien Wooden	Forward	21	2-3	1-2	0-0	2	0	1	3	5
Bryant Randleman	Guard	5	0-1	0-0	0-2	0	0	0	1	0
Jerrell Roberson II	F	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Shane Feden	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Aidan Mckeon	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarrell Pope	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-1	0	0	0	0	0
Hollman Smith	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.4Possessions65.4

108.6Offensive Efficiency139.1

139.1Defensive Efficiency108.6

-30.6Net Efficiency30.6

41.5%Effective FG%72.3%

48.8%True Shooting %72.1%

15.2%Turnover Rate10.7%

49.2%Free Throw Rate26.8%

42.4%3-Point Rate33.9%

1.40Assist / Turnover2.29

Game Summary

James Madison won by 20 points. The game played at approximately 65.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.