Penn State

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

9.3%Penn State

90.7%Indiana

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIndiana -16.3

PROJECTED TOTAL154.2

MODEL MONEYLINEIndiana -975

Indiana

18-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScorePenn State 69

Projected Total154.2

Projected ScoreIndiana 85

Team Comparison

Penn StateMetricIndiana

42.3MMH Power Index58.2

109.2Offensive Efficiency116.0

117.6Defensive Efficiency107.1

-8.4Net Efficiency8.9

5.3Strength of Schedule5.2

-20.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-7.7

67.5Tempo67.4

53.4%Effective FG%56.0%

15.6%Turnover Rate15.1%

25.6%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

34.6%Free Throw Rate35.8%

-5.7Average Margin6.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Indiana HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY90.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIndiana holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.2–42.3), offensive efficiency (116.0–109.2), defensive efficiency (107.1–117.6), net efficiency (8.9–-8.4).

Penn State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (5.3–5.2).

Final

Penn State

59—61

Indiana

Indiana by 2 • 66.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Penn StateTEAM STATIndiana

16-58FG22-56

28.0%FG%39.0%

7-273PT3-12

26.0%3PT%25.0%

20-24FT14-18

83.0%FT%78.0%

39Rebounds41

13Offensive Rebounds10

11Assists13

10Turnovers12

4Steals3

7Blocks6

20Fouls20

Player Box Score

Penn State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Puff Johnson	G	31	4-11	1-6	7-7	8	0	2	0	16
Zach Hicks	Forward	32	3-7	3-7	2-2	5	3	0	1	11
Ace Baldwin Jr.	Guard	40	3-15	0-7	3-4	5	6	1	3	9
D'Marco Dunn	Guard	24	2-5	1-2	4-4	2	0	0	0	9
Nick Kern Jr.	Guard	22	3-7	2-2	0-2	2	0	0	0	8
Qudus Wahab	Forward	29	0-8	0-0	4-5	9	1	1	3	4
Demetrius Lilley	C	8	1-2	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	2
Leo O'Boyle	Forward	6	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Jameel Brown	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
RayQuawndis Mitchell	Guard	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Indiana

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kel'el Ware	Center	36	7-14	0-1	4-6	14	1	2	3	18
Malik Reneau	F	34	4-12	0-0	4-4	8	2	0	0	12
Mackenzie Mgbako	F	32	4-15	0-5	3-4	5	2	0	2	11
Anthony Leal	Guard	23	2-4	1-1	3-4	4	0	1	0	8
Gabe Cupps	G	27	2-4	2-3	0-0	2	2	0	0	6
Xavier Johnson	Guard	37	2-5	0-2	0-0	6	5	0	1	4
Anthony Walker	Forward	9	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Payton Sparks	Center	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.5Possessions66.5

88.7Offensive Efficiency91.7

91.7Defensive Efficiency88.7

-3.0Net Efficiency3.0

33.6%Effective FG%42.0%

42.5%True Shooting %47.3%

15.1%Turnover Rate18.0%

41.4%Free Throw Rate32.1%

46.6%3-Point Rate21.4%

1.10Assist / Turnover1.08

Game Summary

Indiana won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 66.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.