NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.4%NC State

81.6%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -10.2

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -443

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreVirginia 84

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricVirginia

60.1MMH Power Index68.9

118.4Offensive Efficiency119.0

108.6Defensive Efficiency101.8

9.8Net Efficiency17.2

6.4Strength of Schedule5.2

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

70.2Tempo67.6

55.1%Effective FG%55.0%

13.1%Turnover Rate16.0%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

35.7%Free Throw Rate33.2%

6.9Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–60.1), offensive efficiency (119.0–118.4), defensive efficiency (101.8–108.6), net efficiency (17.2–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.4–5.2), shooting efficiency (55.1–55.0), ball security (13.1–16.0).

Final

NC State

73—65

Virginia

NC State by 8 • 66.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATVirginia

28-58FG25-66

48.0%FG%38.0%

3-173PT9-28

18.0%3PT%32.0%

14-15FT6-11

93.0%FT%55.0%

38Rebounds35

8Offensive Rebounds13

10Assists19

8Turnovers9

8Steals5

8Blocks3

12Fouls13

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DJ Burns	Forward	24	8-11	0-0	3-3	5	1	0	1	19
Michael O'Connell	Guard	36	5-9	2-5	0-0	3	3	1	1	12
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	20	4-8	0-0	4-5	6	0	3	2	12
Casey Morsell	Guard	35	4-8	0-2	3-3	4	1	2	0	11
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	38	4-11	1-5	0-0	12	1	0	1	9
DJ Horne	Guard	40	2-9	0-5	4-4	3	2	2	1	8
Jayden Taylor	Guard	27	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	1	2
Breon Pass	Guard	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	1	0

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaac McKneely	G	41	8-15	5-9	2-4	3	2	0	0	23
Reece Beekman	Guard	42	6-13	1-3	4-7	4	11	2	0	17
Ryan Dunn	Forward	38	5-10	0-2	0-0	9	1	0	2	10
Taine Murray	Guard	29	3-9	2-5	0-0	1	1	0	0	8
Jordan Minor	Forward	32	2-6	0-0	0-0	9	1	1	0	4
Jacob Groves	Forward	13	1-6	1-4	0-0	0	1	1	0	3
Andrew Rohde	G	19	0-5	0-5	0-0	4	2	0	0	0
Blake Buchanan	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Dante Harris	G	5	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.2Possessions66.2

110.3Offensive Efficiency98.2

98.2Defensive Efficiency110.3

12.1Net Efficiency-12.1

50.9%Effective FG%44.7%

56.0%True Shooting %45.6%

12.3%Turnover Rate13.4%

25.9%Free Throw Rate16.7%

29.3%3-Point Rate42.4%

1.25Assist / Turnover2.11

Game Summary

NC State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 66.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.