Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

70.3%Arkansas State

29.7%Montana

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -3.7

PROJECTED TOTAL159.5

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -237

Montana

18-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Projected Total159.5

Projected ScoreMontana 78

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricMontana

57.7MMH Power Index45.4

113.1Offensive Efficiency108.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency104.8

7.8Net Efficiency3.8

-1.0Strength of Schedule-2.4

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.5

73.3Tempo71.2

52.7%Effective FG%56.3%

19.4%Turnover Rate19.2%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %21.9%

39.6%Free Throw Rate37.7%

5.8Average Margin2.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–45.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–108.6), net efficiency (7.8–3.8), strength of schedule (-1.0–-2.4).

Montana COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.8–105.3), shooting efficiency (56.3–52.7), ball security (19.2–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

74—61

Montana

Arkansas State by 13 • 61.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATMontana

27-69FG23-50

39.0%FG%46.0%

8-333PT6-19

24.0%3PT%32.0%

12-17FT9-11

71.0%FT%82.0%

42Rebounds31

22Offensive Rebounds8

14Assists13

6Turnovers15

8Steals4

2Blocks3

12Fouls12

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Izaiyah Nelson	F	26	7-11	1-2	2-4	12	1	0	1	17
Derrian Ford	G	32	4-11	3-7	2-3	4	3	1	0	13
Caleb Fields	Guard	38	4-10	1-5	2-2	5	6	1	0	11
Freddy Hicks	G	34	4-17	0-7	3-4	7	1	1	1	11
Taryn Todd	Guard	37	4-8	2-5	0-0	3	2	2	0	10
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	15	3-3	1-1	3-4	3	0	2	0	10
Julian Lual	Guard	5	1-5	0-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Avery Felts	Guard	13	0-4	0-3	0-0	1	1	1	0	0

Montana

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Laolu Oke	Forward	34	5-8	0-1	5-6	8	5	0	1	15
Josh Vazquez	Guard	28	5-11	2-7	0-0	1	2	0	1	12
Te'Jon Sawyer	F	19	4-8	1-3	0-0	3	2	0	0	9
Chase Henderson	G	16	4-5	1-1	0-1	2	0	1	0	9
Blake Jones	Forward	10	2-3	1-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	5
Brandon Whitney	Guard	33	0-4	0-1	4-4	4	2	1	0	4
Aanen Moody	Guard	33	2-8	0-3	0-0	7	1	2	0	4
Dischon Thomas	Forward	15	1-2	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	1	3
Jaxon Nap	Forward	12	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

61.7Possessions61.7

119.9Offensive Efficiency98.9

98.9Defensive Efficiency119.9

21.1Net Efficiency-21.1

44.9%Effective FG%52.0%

48.0%True Shooting %55.2%

9.8%Turnover Rate24.1%

24.6%Free Throw Rate22.0%

47.8%3-Point Rate38.0%

2.33Assist / Turnover0.87

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 61.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.