Ball State

12-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

44.0%Ball State

56.0%Georgia State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADGeorgia State -2.3

PROJECTED TOTAL140.9

MODEL MONEYLINEGeorgia State -127

Georgia State

10-22

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBall State 69

Projected Total140.9

Projected ScoreGeorgia State 72

Team Comparison

Ball StateMetricGeorgia State

41.3MMH Power Index38.9

101.7Offensive Efficiency101.3

104.7Defensive Efficiency107.5

-3.0Net Efficiency-6.2

-3.9Strength of Schedule-1.7

-0.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-10.9

66.4Tempo69.5

48.3%Effective FG%45.3%

16.0%Turnover Rate15.6%

26.5%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

33.0%Free Throw Rate37.4%

-2.0Average Margin-4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Ball State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY56.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBall State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (41.3–38.9), offensive efficiency (101.7–101.3), defensive efficiency (104.7–107.5), net efficiency (-3.0–-6.2).

Georgia State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.7–-3.9), ball security (15.6–16.0), offensive rebounding (28.2–26.5).

Final

Ball State

66—71

Georgia State

Georgia State by 5 • 68.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Ball StateTEAM STATGeorgia State

22-68FG27-65

32.0%FG%42.0%

8-333PT2-11

24.0%3PT%18.0%

14-24FT15-22

58.0%FT%68.0%

44Rebounds49

17Offensive Rebounds14

11Assists14

6Turnovers6

1Steals3

—Blocks3

16Fouls18

Player Box Score

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Fatt Hill	G	29	6-15	0-3	5-8	6	0	0	17
Juanse Gorosito	G	29	4-10	4-10	0-0	3	1	0	12
Ethan Brittain-Watts	Guard	24	3-7	3-6	3-4	4	0	0	12
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	35	4-18	1-9	2-3	13	2	1	11
Jeremiah Hernandez	Guard	26	3-12	0-5	1-2	3	3	0	7
Ben Hendriks	Center	20	2-3	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	6
Payton Sparks	Center	20	0-3	0-0	1-5	7	4	0	1
Mason Jones	F	12	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0
Joey Hart	G	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0

Georgia State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cesare Edwards	Center	29	8-16	0-0	1-3	11	1	0	1	17
Zarique Nutter	F	38	5-13	1-1	5-7	12	6	0	0	16
Toneari Lane	G	37	5-12	1-4	3-4	2	3	1	1	14
Nick McMullen	Forward	37	3-8	0-1	4-6	13	1	0	0	10
Malachi Brown	G	27	3-7	0-1	0-0	6	1	1	0	6
Clash Peters	F	14	2-2	0-0	2-2	3	1	1	1	6
Malik Ferguson	G	11	1-3	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Jelani Hamilton	G	5	0-4	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Darnell Evans	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.0Possessions68.0

97.1Offensive Efficiency104.4

104.4Defensive Efficiency97.1

-7.4Net Efficiency7.4

38.2%Effective FG%43.1%

41.6%True Shooting %47.1%

8.8%Turnover Rate8.9%

35.3%Free Throw Rate33.8%

48.5%3-Point Rate16.9%

1.83Assist / Turnover2.33

Game Summary

Georgia State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 68.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.