Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

26.3%Illinois State

73.7%North Dakota State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorth Dakota State -7.4

PROJECTED TOTAL148.0

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Dakota State -280

North Dakota State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 70

Projected Total148.0

Projected ScoreNorth Dakota State 78

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricNorth Dakota State

54.3MMH Power Index59

110.6Offensive Efficiency115.4

101.4Defensive Efficiency100.8

9.2Net Efficiency14.6

1.0Strength of Schedule-4.6

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency14.3

67.5Tempo69.6

54.3%Effective FG%54.5%

16.8%Turnover Rate15.5%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %32.0%

32.0%Free Throw Rate31.3%

6.2Average Margin10.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Dakota State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Dakota State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.0–54.3), offensive efficiency (115.4–110.6), defensive efficiency (100.8–101.4), net efficiency (14.6–9.2).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.0–-4.6), free throw rate (32.0–31.3).

Final

Illinois State

77—68

North Dakota State

Illinois State by 9 • 64.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATNorth Dakota State

28-59FG27-66

47.0%FG%41.0%

8-203PT11-39

40.0%3PT%28.0%

13-14FT3-6

93.0%FT%50.0%

40Rebounds31

8Offensive Rebounds8

11Assists12

5Turnovers6

2Steals1

1Blocks3

10Fouls14

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	35	6-11	2-3	6-6	4	2	0	1	20
Ty Pence	G	33	7-11	0-1	3-3	7	2	0	0	17
Dalton Banks	Guard	26	3-10	0-2	2-3	4	4	2	0	8
Chase Walker	F	19	3-9	0-1	2-2	10	1	0	0	8
Cameron Barnes	F	6	3-3	2-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	8
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	26	3-5	1-2	0-0	2	2	0	0	7
Jordan Davis	Guard	19	1-2	1-2	0-0	5	0	0	0	3
Landon Wolf	G	17	1-4	1-3	0-0	3	0	0	0	3
Caden Boser	Forward	15	1-3	1-3	0-0	3	0	0	0	3
Jack Daugherty	F	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

North Dakota State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jacari White	G	24	10-15	4-6	3-5	2	0	1	0	27
Tajavis Miller	G	28	4-9	2-6	0-1	5	0	0	1	10
Jacksen Moni	Forward	28	4-12	1-8	0-0	4	5	0	2	9
Masen Miller	Guard	33	2-7	2-7	0-0	0	1	0	0	6
Brennan Watkins	G	33	2-10	2-5	0-0	5	3	0	0	6
Noah Feddersen	F	18	2-5	0-2	0-0	1	2	0	0	4
Luke Kasubke	Guard	10	2-5	0-3	0-0	4	1	0	0	4
Jeremiah Burke	F	17	1-1	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	0	2
Andy Stefonowicz	G	7	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Darik Dissette	Guard	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.8Possessions64.8

118.8Offensive Efficiency104.9

104.9Defensive Efficiency118.8

13.9Net Efficiency-13.9

54.2%Effective FG%49.2%

58.6%True Shooting %49.4%

8.0%Turnover Rate9.0%

23.7%Free Throw Rate9.1%

33.9%3-Point Rate59.1%

2.20Assist / Turnover2.00

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 64.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.