Northwestern

15-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

26.7%Northwestern

73.3%Dayton

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDayton -7.7

PROJECTED TOTAL145.1

MODEL MONEYLINEDayton -275

Dayton

25-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 69

Projected Total145.1

Projected ScoreDayton 76

Team Comparison

NorthwesternMetricDayton

55.4MMH Power Index59.9

111.6Offensive Efficiency108.5

109.8Defensive Efficiency101.5

1.8Net Efficiency7.0

5.6Strength of Schedule5.7

-2.7Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

65.6Tempo68.3

51.9%Effective FG%52.0%

13.0%Turnover Rate16.9%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

34.8%Free Throw Rate47.6%

1.2Average Margin4.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Dayton HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDayton holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.9–55.4), defensive efficiency (101.5–109.8), net efficiency (7.0–1.8), strength of schedule (5.7–5.6).

Northwestern COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (111.6–108.5), ball security (13.0–16.9), offensive rebounding (28.2–26.7).

Final

Northwestern

66—71

Dayton

Dayton by 5 • 68.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NorthwesternTEAM STATDayton

25-56FG24-46

45.0%FG%52.0%

5-203PT8-21

25.0%3PT%38.0%

11-13FT15-25

85.0%FT%60.0%

34Rebounds25

10Offensive Rebounds3

11Assists16

16Turnovers14

6Steals10

1Blocks4

21Fouls15

Player Box Score

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nick Martinelli	F	39	12-16	3-3	5-6	14	0	1	0	32
Angelo Ciaravino	G	21	5-7	1-2	1-1	2	1	2	0	12
K.J. Windham	G	28	4-11	0-5	1-2	3	3	0	1	9
Jalen Leach	Not Available	23	1-5	1-4	4-4	0	2	0	0	7
Luke Hunger	F	19	2-7	0-1	0-0	2	2	0	0	4
Matthew Nicholson	Center	20	1-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Justin Mullins	G	23	0-3	0-2	0-0	5	3	2	0	0
Ty Berry	Guard	21	0-5	0-3	0-0	2	0	1	0	0
Blake Smith	G	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Dayton

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Enoch Cheeks	Guard	34	7-10	2-5	0-1	4	2	6	1	16
Nate Santos	Forward	26	6-9	3-4	1-2	6	1	0	0	16
Malachi Smith	G	31	4-6	1-2	5-10	4	6	1	0	14
Zed Key	Forward	30	2-4	0-0	7-7	3	3	0	1	11
Javon Bennett	G	27	3-7	2-5	0-0	2	1	2	0	8
Jacob Conner	F	19	1-3	0-2	1-3	1	0	1	1	3
Amaël L'Etang	F	10	1-4	0-1	1-2	4	2	0	0	3
Posh Alexander	Guard	20	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	1	0
Hamad Mousa	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.6Possessions68.6

96.2Offensive Efficiency103.5

103.5Defensive Efficiency96.2

-7.3Net Efficiency7.3

49.1%Effective FG%60.9%

53.1%True Shooting %61.3%

23.5%Turnover Rate20.3%

23.2%Free Throw Rate54.3%

35.7%3-Point Rate45.7%

0.69Assist / Turnover1.14

Game Summary

Dayton won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 68.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.