Little Rock

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

11.6%Little Rock

88.4%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -14.4

PROJECTED TOTAL154.9

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -762

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreLittle Rock 70

Projected Total154.9

Projected ScoreArkansas State 85

Team Comparison

Little RockMetricArkansas State

44MMH Power Index57.7

103.0Offensive Efficiency113.1

108.2Defensive Efficiency105.3

-5.2Net Efficiency7.8

0.5Strength of Schedule-1.0

-0.7Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

68.5Tempo73.3

50.3%Effective FG%52.7%

18.7%Turnover Rate19.4%

32.1%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

28.6%Free Throw Rate39.6%

-3.6Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY88.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–44.0), offensive efficiency (113.1–103.0), defensive efficiency (105.3–108.2), net efficiency (7.8–-5.2).

Little Rock COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.5–-1.0), ball security (18.7–19.4).

Final

Little Rock

63—80

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 17 • 66.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Little RockTEAM STATArkansas State

23-49FG24-64

47.0%FG%38.0%

4-113PT13-39

36.0%3PT%33.0%

13-20FT19-30

65.0%FT%63.0%

35Rebounds42

9Offensive Rebounds20

11Assists12

17Turnovers9

5Steals10

5Blocks2

20Fouls17

Player Box Score

Little Rock

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mwani Wilkinson	Guard	27	6-12	2-4	6-7	2	0	0	1	20
Isaiah Lewis	G	24	4-6	0-0	1-2	6	4	0	0	9
Creed Williamson	Forward	17	4-8	0-0	0-0	4	3	0	0	8
Johnathan Lawson	G	32	3-8	0-3	1-3	5	2	1	0	7
Nikola Milosevic	Forward	22	2-5	2-4	0-0	2	1	0	2	6
Christian Hughes	G	28	1-1	0-0	2-2	3	1	2	0	4
Jordan Jefferson	Guard	17	1-5	0-0	2-4	3	0	0	1	4
Ante Beljan	F	22	1-2	0-0	1-2	6	0	0	1	3
Tuongthach Gatkek	F	8	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	2	0	2
Kristiyan Popov	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	27	6-15	3-6	2-6	6	3	1	0	17
Kobe Julien	Forward	23	3-8	0-4	10-12	2	0	6	1	16
Derrian Ford	G	24	3-12	3-6	2-2	2	0	0	0	11
Joseph Pinion	G	17	3-8	3-8	0-0	4	0	0	0	9
Avery Felts	Guard	17	3-6	3-6	0-0	1	2	0	0	9
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	31	2-5	0-3	3-4	4	7	0	0	7
Kameron Johnson	Forward	6	1-1	0-0	2-4	1	0	1	0	4
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	12	1-4	1-4	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Justin Johnson	G	10	1-2	0-1	0-2	2	0	2	0	2
Cody Head	G	6	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Rashaud Marshall	F	23	0-0	0-0	0-0	11	0	0	1	0
Josh Hill	F	4	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.9Possessions66.9

94.2Offensive Efficiency119.6

119.6Defensive Efficiency94.2

-25.4Net Efficiency25.4

51.0%Effective FG%47.7%

53.8%True Shooting %51.1%

25.6%Turnover Rate13.4%

40.8%Free Throw Rate46.9%

22.4%3-Point Rate60.9%

0.65Assist / Turnover1.33

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 17 points. The game played at approximately 66.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.