Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

16.0%Texas State

84.0%TCU

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTCU -11.1

PROJECTED TOTAL148.4

MODEL MONEYLINETCU -525

TCU

23-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 69

Projected Total148.4

Projected ScoreTCU 80

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricTCU

49.4MMH Power Index59.7

107.7Offensive Efficiency110.2

103.4Defensive Efficiency102.7

4.3Net Efficiency7.5

-4.7Strength of Schedule4.6

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency2.2

68.6Tempo70.2

51.3%Effective FG%50.5%

18.4%Turnover Rate15.3%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %33.6%

36.0%Free Throw Rate38.3%

2.9Average Margin5.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

TCU HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY84.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTCU holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.7–49.4), offensive efficiency (110.2–107.7), defensive efficiency (102.7–103.4), net efficiency (7.5–4.3).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (9.1–2.2), shooting efficiency (51.3–50.5), offensive rebounding (34.3–33.6).

Final

Texas State

71—76

TCU

TCU by 5 • 73.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATTCU

24-57FG28-52

42.0%FG%54.0%

5-173PT5-14

29.0%3PT%36.0%

18-21FT15-32

86.0%FT%47.0%

27Rebounds34

5Offensive Rebounds6

13Assists15

12Turnovers11

4Steals7

1Blocks3

23Fouls20

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tylan Pope	Forward	29	6-13	0-3	5-5	5	0	1	1	17
Dylan Dawson	Guard	28	4-12	4-9	3-3	4	1	0	0	15
Joshua O'Garro	G	35	7-11	0-1	0-1	6	2	2	0	14
Kaden Gumbs	G	27	4-8	0-1	2-2	0	1	0	0	10
Drue Drinnon	Guard	33	1-7	1-3	5-6	3	6	0	0	8
Christian Turner	Forward	34	2-5	0-0	3-4	8	3	1	0	7
Austin Green	F	14	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

TCU

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Noah Reynolds	Guard	32	6-7	1-1	4-8	1	5	1	0	17
Trazarien White	Forward	30	7-10	2-3	0-1	2	1	1	0	16
Frankie Collins	G	32	6-8	0-0	1-3	1	6	1	0	13
Brendan Wenzel	Guard	28	3-12	2-8	4-4	7	1	0	0	12
David Punch	F	19	2-4	0-0	1-2	5	0	0	0	5
Vasean Allette	PG	17	2-5	0-0	1-4	3	1	3	1	5
Ernest Udeh Jr.	C	20	1-1	0-0	2-4	10	1	1	1	4
Micah Robinson	F	6	1-2	0-1	1-2	1	0	0	1	3
Jace Posey	G	7	0-2	0-0	1-4	3	0	0	0	1
Isaiah Manning	F	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Malick Diallo	C	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

73.1Possessions73.1

97.1Offensive Efficiency104.0

104.0Defensive Efficiency97.1

-6.8Net Efficiency6.8

46.5%Effective FG%58.7%

53.0%True Shooting %56.5%

16.2%Turnover Rate15.2%

36.8%Free Throw Rate61.5%

29.8%3-Point Rate26.9%

1.08Assist / Turnover1.36

Game Summary

TCU won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 73.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.