Sacramento State

10-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

15.9%Sacramento State

84.1%UC San Diego

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC San Diego -12.8

PROJECTED TOTAL155.4

MODEL MONEYLINEUC San Diego -529

UC San Diego

23-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSacramento State 71

Projected Total155.4

Projected ScoreUC San Diego 84

Team Comparison

Sacramento StateMetricUC San Diego

43MMH Power Index53.4

106.1Offensive Efficiency108.4

112.0Defensive Efficiency100.7

-5.9Net Efficiency7.7

0.9Strength of Schedule-1.3

-7.8Last 10 Net Efficiency5.4

73.2Tempo69.8

48.5%Effective FG%53.1%

14.2%Turnover Rate16.4%

25.1%Offensive Rebound %26.9%

41.8%Free Throw Rate33.2%

-4.3Average Margin5.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC San Diego HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY84.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC San Diego holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.4–43.0), offensive efficiency (108.4–106.1), defensive efficiency (100.7–112.0), net efficiency (7.7–-5.9).

Sacramento State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.9–-1.3), ball security (14.2–16.4), free throw rate (41.8–33.2).

Final

Sacramento State

54—64

UC San Diego

UC San Diego by 10 • 62.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Sacramento StateTEAM STATUC San Diego

19-47FG19-54

40.0%FG%35.0%

8-293PT8-28

28.0%3PT%29.0%

8-16FT18-26

50.0%FT%69.0%

38Rebounds35

11Offensive Rebounds13

12Assists17

18Turnovers10

4Steals10

4Blocks1

22Fouls20

Player Box Score

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alex Kovatchev	G	35	5-9	3-7	1-2	4	1	1	0	14
Jacob Holt	Forward	27	3-5	2-4	4-8	7	0	0	0	12
Emil Skytta	G	26	4-8	0-2	0-3	4	3	0	0	8
Lachlan Brewer	G	21	2-2	2-2	0-0	1	1	0	0	6
Julian Vaughns	Guard	17	1-8	1-6	2-2	2	0	1	1	5
Bowyn Beatty	F	11	1-1	0-0	1-1	3	0	1	0	3
Bailey Nunn	G	20	1-5	0-3	0-0	1	3	0	0	2
Jalen Pitre	F	16	1-3	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	2	2
Chudi Dioramma	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
EJ Neal Jr.	G	22	0-5	0-4	0-0	7	3	1	1	0

UC San Diego

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones	Guard	33	5-10	0-0	11-14	8	3	2	0	21
Tyler McGhie	Guard	31	5-15	3-12	4-5	2	1	1	0	17
Justin Rochelin	G	24	3-5	2-4	0-0	5	1	0	0	8
Aidan Burke	G	10	2-4	2-4	0-0	0	0	0	0	6
Hayden Gray	Guard	33	2-8	1-3	0-1	3	3	4	1	5
Nordin Kapic	F	27	2-10	0-4	1-2	5	1	0	0	5
Chris Howell	G	27	0-1	0-0	2-4	3	7	3	0	2
Maximo Milovich	Forward	11	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Ryder Elisaldez	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.5Possessions62.5

86.4Offensive Efficiency102.4

102.4Defensive Efficiency86.4

-16.0Net Efficiency16.0

48.9%Effective FG%42.6%

49.5%True Shooting %48.2%

29.2%Turnover Rate15.8%

34.0%Free Throw Rate48.1%

61.7%3-Point Rate51.9%

0.67Assist / Turnover1.70

Game Summary

UC San Diego won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 62.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.