Fresno State

13-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

27.1%Fresno State

72.9%UC Santa Barbara

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC Santa Barbara -7.5

PROJECTED TOTAL149.4

MODEL MONEYLINEUC Santa Barbara -269

UC Santa Barbara

18-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreFresno State 71

Projected Total149.4

Projected ScoreUC Santa Barbara 78

Team Comparison

Fresno StateMetricUC Santa Barbara

47.1MMH Power Index51.4

104.9Offensive Efficiency113.2

104.9Defensive Efficiency106.1

0.0Net Efficiency7.1

1.5Strength of Schedule-2.0

-6.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.7

69.4Tempo68.5

51.3%Effective FG%54.8%

18.2%Turnover Rate18.7%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %32.5%

35.5%Free Throw Rate37.9%

0.0Average Margin4.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Santa Barbara HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY72.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Santa Barbara holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.4–47.1), offensive efficiency (113.2–104.9), net efficiency (7.1–0.0), recent form (-1.7–-6.0).

Fresno State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.9–106.1), strength of schedule (1.5–-2.0), ball security (18.2–18.7).

Final

Fresno State

86—91

UC Santa Barbara

UC Santa Barbara by 5 • 81.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Fresno StateTEAM STATUC Santa Barbara

31-67FG27-52

46.0%FG%52.0%

8-223PT8-23

36.0%3PT%35.0%

16-24FT29-33

67.0%FT%88.0%

31Rebounds35

10Offensive Rebounds6

15Assists12

13Turnovers20

12Steals5

3Blocks—

25Fouls21

Player Box Score

Fresno State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Amar Augillard	G	18	6-12	2-6	7-8	1	2	2	0	21
Mykell Robinson	Forward	38	6-11	3-4	1-2	4	1	0	1	16
Zaon Collins	G	37	6-13	0-3	3-3	4	4	6	0	15
Jalen Weaver	Guard	23	4-13	2-4	4-4	1	1	3	1	14
Alex Crawford	F	34	5-8	0-2	0-1	5	3	1	0	10
Elijah Price	F	24	2-4	1-2	1-4	4	3	0	1	6
Mor Seck	C	13	1-3	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Pierre Geneste Jr.	C	3	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Jasir Tremble	Guard	6	0-2	0-1	0-2	1	0	0	0	0
Joshua Bonga	Guard	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

UC Santa Barbara

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Deuce Turner	G	25	4-10	1-5	15-16	2	2	0	24
Jason Fontenet II	G	33	5-8	1-2	7-8	6	1	1	18
Colin Smith	F	27	6-12	2-5	3-3	4	1	0	17
Stephan Swenson	Guard	22	6-7	2-3	0-0	4	6	2	14
Kenny Pohto	Forward	25	4-7	0-0	1-2	5	1	2	9
Cole Anderson	Guard	29	1-3	1-3	2-2	5	1	0	5
Max Murrell	Forward	16	1-4	1-4	0-0	1	0	0	3
Ariel Bland	F	8	0-0	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	1
Chris Mitchell	Guard	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0
Ben Shtolzberg	G	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0
Evans Kipruto	C	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

81.6Possessions81.6

105.4Offensive Efficiency111.5

111.5Defensive Efficiency105.4

-6.1Net Efficiency6.1

52.2%Effective FG%59.6%

54.8%True Shooting %67.2%

16.0%Turnover Rate24.5%

35.8%Free Throw Rate63.5%

32.8%3-Point Rate44.2%

1.15Assist / Turnover0.60

Game Summary

UC Santa Barbara won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 81.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.