Indiana State

11-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

45.9%Indiana State

54.1%Ball State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBall State -1.9

PROJECTED TOTAL142.7

MODEL MONEYLINEBall State -118

Ball State

12-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIndiana State 70

Projected Total142.7

Projected ScoreBall State 72

Team Comparison

Indiana StateMetricBall State

44.4MMH Power Index41.3

104.7Offensive Efficiency101.7

106.0Defensive Efficiency104.7

-1.3Net Efficiency-3.0

0.1Strength of Schedule-3.9

-5.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.9

70.3Tempo66.4

53.6%Effective FG%48.3%

19.5%Turnover Rate16.0%

27.3%Offensive Rebound %26.5%

28.8%Free Throw Rate33.0%

-0.9Average Margin-2.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Indiana State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY54.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIndiana State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (44.4–41.3), offensive efficiency (104.7–101.7), net efficiency (-1.3–-3.0), strength of schedule (0.1–-3.9).

Ball State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.7–106.0), recent form (-0.9–-5.2), ball security (16.0–19.5).

Final

Indiana State

94—84

Ball State

Indiana State by 10 • 80.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Indiana StateTEAM STATBall State

28-56FG22-57

50.0%FG%39.0%

12-273PT7-24

44.0%3PT%29.0%

26-29FT33-46

90.0%FT%72.0%

43Rebounds31

4Offensive Rebounds5

21Assists11

13Turnovers8

4Steals4

2Blocks3

29Fouls22

Player Box Score

Indiana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Camp Wagner	G	33	6-11	5-8	2-2	5	1	0	0	19
K'mani Doughty	Guard	34	4-5	3-3	6-6	5	0	1	0	17
Jaden Daughtry	F	20	7-14	0-2	2-2	7	2	0	1	16
Samage Teel	Guard	32	3-9	1-4	7-8	6	11	2	0	14
Bruno Alocen	G	30	2-7	2-6	7-8	3	4	1	0	13
Markus Harding	C	18	3-6	0-2	2-2	5	2	0	1	8
Tyran Cook	G	8	2-2	0-0	0-1	1	0	0	0	4
Jahni Summers	G	16	1-1	1-1	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Jayan Walker	G	9	0-1	0-1	0-0	5	1	0	0	0
Merritt Alderink	F	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Payton Sparks	Center	23	4-11	0-0	8-15	7	1	0	2	16
TJ Burch	G	16	4-8	1-2	5-8	2	1	1	0	14
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	33	4-11	2-7	2-2	4	0	0	0	12
Fatt Hill	G	29	4-11	1-4	2-2	4	2	2	0	11
Juanse Gorosito	G	22	3-6	2-5	3-3	4	1	0	0	11
Jeremiah Hernandez	Guard	19	1-1	1-1	6-8	0	0	0	0	9
Ethan Brittain-Watts	Guard	28	1-7	0-4	5-5	3	4	0	0	7
Ben Hendriks	Center	15	1-1	0-0	0-1	2	2	1	1	2
Mason Jones	F	11	0-1	0-1	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Joey Hart	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

80.4Possessions80.4

116.9Offensive Efficiency104.5

104.5Defensive Efficiency116.9

12.4Net Efficiency-12.4

60.7%Effective FG%44.7%

67.4%True Shooting %53.3%

16.5%Turnover Rate9.8%

51.8%Free Throw Rate80.7%

48.2%3-Point Rate42.1%

1.62Assist / Turnover1.38

Game Summary

Indiana State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 80.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.