Samford

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

9.5%Samford

90.5%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMichigan State -15.7

PROJECTED TOTAL152.7

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -953

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSamford 69

Projected Total152.7

Projected ScoreMichigan State 84

Team Comparison

SamfordMetricMichigan State

54.1MMH Power Index69.8

113.5Offensive Efficiency117.0

108.3Defensive Efficiency101.5

5.2Net Efficiency15.5

-2.9Strength of Schedule7.2

14.0Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

69.5Tempo67.3

54.0%Effective FG%54.1%

13.3%Turnover Rate17.2%

25.3%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

42.5%Free Throw Rate36.6%

3.6Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY90.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–54.1), offensive efficiency (117.0–113.5), defensive efficiency (101.5–108.3), net efficiency (15.5–5.2).

Samford COUNTERS WITHrecent form (14.0–9.5), ball security (13.3–17.2), free throw rate (42.5–36.6).

Final

Samford

75—83

Michigan State

Michigan State by 8 • 70.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

SamfordTEAM STATMichigan State

28-57FG28-55

49.0%FG%51.0%

9-263PT7-24

35.0%3PT%29.0%

10-14FT20-23

71.0%FT%87.0%

30Rebounds30

11Offensive Rebounds10

20Assists21

19Turnovers14

7Steals13

4Blocks2

21Fouls15

Player Box Score

Samford

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaden Brownell	F	27	8-13	3-6	0-0	9	2	1	1	19
Josh Holloway	G	18	5-7	1-1	3-4	1	0	2	0	14
Lukas Walls	G	23	4-6	2-3	2-2	1	4	1	0	12
Isaiah West	G	15	3-4	0-1	1-1	3	0	1	0	7
Rylan Jones	Guard	32	3-7	0-4	0-1	4	8	2	1	6
Collin Holloway	Forward	30	2-7	2-4	0-2	3	2	0	0	6
Trey Fort	G	22	1-8	0-5	2-2	4	2	0	1	4
Riley Allenspach	F	16	1-2	0-0	2-2	1	1	0	1	4
Julian Brown	Guard	15	1-3	1-2	0-0	2	1	0	0	3
Hamed Olayinka	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaden Akins	Guard	29	10-15	3-7	2-2	3	0	1	0	25
Frankie Fidler	Forward	26	2-6	1-4	7-8	1	2	0	0	12
Jase Richardson	Guard	25	4-6	1-2	3-3	3	3	4	1	12
Szymon Zapala	Center	18	4-6	0-0	2-2	6	0	0	0	10
Xavier Booker	F	10	3-4	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	7
Tre Holloman	G	30	1-9	1-9	2-2	1	9	6	0	5
Coen Carr	F	20	2-4	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	1	4
Jaxon Kohler	F	16	1-2	0-1	2-2	6	2	0	0	4
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	13	0-1	0-0	2-2	0	4	1	0	2
Carson Cooper	C	13	1-2	0-0	0-2	5	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

70.8Possessions70.8

105.9Offensive Efficiency117.2

117.2Defensive Efficiency105.9

-11.3Net Efficiency11.3

57.0%Effective FG%57.3%

58.9%True Shooting %63.0%

26.5%Turnover Rate20.0%

24.6%Free Throw Rate41.8%

45.6%3-Point Rate43.6%

1.05Assist / Turnover1.50

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 70.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.