Montana State

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

33.0%Montana State

67.0%Northwestern

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthwestern -3.9

PROJECTED TOTAL148.7

MODEL MONEYLINENorthwestern -203

Northwestern

15-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMontana State 72

Projected Total148.7

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 76

Team Comparison

Montana StateMetricNorthwestern

53.6MMH Power Index55.4

114.4Offensive Efficiency111.6

104.9Defensive Efficiency109.8

9.5Net Efficiency1.8

-3.7Strength of Schedule5.6

4.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.7

68.1Tempo65.6

55.1%Effective FG%51.9%

14.7%Turnover Rate13.0%

28.1%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

30.7%Free Throw Rate34.8%

6.5Average Margin1.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Montana State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY67.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMontana State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (114.4–111.6), defensive efficiency (104.9–109.8), net efficiency (9.5–1.8), recent form (4.9–-2.7).

Northwestern COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (55.4–53.6), strength of schedule (5.6–-3.7), ball security (13.0–14.7).

Final

Montana State

69—72

Northwestern

Northwestern by 3 • 64.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Montana StateTEAM STATNorthwestern

25-56FG29-64

45.0%FG%45.0%

9-223PT4-16

41.0%3PT%25.0%

10-12FT10-16

83.0%FT%63.0%

32Rebounds39

9Offensive Rebounds15

19Assists13

10Turnovers9

6Steals7

3Blocks7

15Fouls16

Player Box Score

Montana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jabe Mullins	Guard	28	4-9	3-6	6-6	1	6	1	0	17
Brandon Walker	F	19	5-11	1-3	3-4	3	1	0	0	14
Max Agbonkpolo	Forward	33	6-12	0-1	1-2	10	0	2	1	13
BJ Kolly	F	21	4-7	0-0	0-0	4	1	1	1	8
Tyler Patterson	Guard	23	2-6	2-6	0-0	1	0	0	1	6
Sam Lecholat	Forward	17	2-5	2-2	0-0	5	1	1	0	6
Brian Goracke	Forward	21	1-3	1-3	0-0	3	3	0	0	3
Jed Miller	G	16	1-2	0-1	0-0	2	5	1	0	2
Patrick McMahon	G	18	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	2	0	0	0
Bryce Zephir	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nick Martinelli	F	35	10-22	0-2	2-3	7	0	3	0	22
Brooks Barnhizer	Guard	28	9-15	1-2	1-1	10	4	3	1	20
Jalen Leach	Not Available	32	3-10	1-3	5-6	2	2	1	0	12
Ty Berry	Guard	33	3-7	2-5	0-0	5	1	0	1	8
Matthew Nicholson	Center	26	2-2	0-0	0-3	3	2	0	4	4
Justin Mullins	G	16	1-1	0-0	1-2	3	1	0	0	3
Angelo Ciaravino	G	8	1-3	0-1	1-1	2	1	0	0	3
Luke Hunger	F	14	0-2	0-2	0-0	5	1	0	1	0
K.J. Windham	G	8	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.2Possessions64.2

107.5Offensive Efficiency112.1

112.1Defensive Efficiency107.5

-4.7Net Efficiency4.7

52.7%Effective FG%48.4%

55.9%True Shooting %50.3%

15.9%Turnover Rate13.7%

21.4%Free Throw Rate25.0%

39.3%3-Point Rate25.0%

1.90Assist / Turnover1.44

Game Summary

Northwestern won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 64.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.