Toledo

19-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

58.4%Toledo

41.6%Jacksonville State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -0.2

PROJECTED TOTAL151.0

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -140

Jacksonville State

15-17

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreToledo 76

Projected Total151.0

Projected ScoreJacksonville State 75

Team Comparison

ToledoMetricJacksonville State

58.8MMH Power Index51.2

116.0Offensive Efficiency108.2

109.6Defensive Efficiency101.8

6.4Net Efficiency6.4

2.3Strength of Schedule-2.3

10.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.3

69.8Tempo67.2

55.1%Effective FG%51.0%

14.6%Turnover Rate17.0%

30.4%Offensive Rebound %31.3%

30.3%Free Throw Rate44.5%

4.5Average Margin4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–51.2), offensive efficiency (116.0–108.2), strength of schedule (2.3–-2.3), recent form (10.2–-0.3).

Jacksonville State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.8–109.6), offensive rebounding (31.3–30.4), free throw rate (44.5–30.3).

Final

Toledo

82—80

Jacksonville State

Toledo by 2 • 65.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ToledoTEAM STATJacksonville State

30-65FG30-58

46.0%FG%52.0%

14-253PT9-24

56.0%3PT%38.0%

8-10FT11-15

80.0%FT%73.0%

26Rebounds41

8Offensive Rebounds12

18Assists9

4Turnovers13

6Steals3

4Blocks4

12Fouls10

Player Box Score

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sam Lewis	G	30	6-10	4-5	0-0	4	2	0	1	16
Isaiah Adams	Guard	32	4-13	2-4	4-4	3	6	1	1	14
Sonny Wilson	G	35	5-14	1-2	1-2	5	3	3	0	12
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	21	4-5	3-4	1-2	3	2	0	0	12
Seth Hubbard	G	24	3-9	3-8	2-2	4	2	0	0	11
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	21	4-6	1-1	0-0	3	0	1	0	9
Javan Simmons	F	32	4-7	0-0	0-0	1	3	1	2	8
Bryce Ford	G	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Jacksonville State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaron Pierre Jr.	G	36	7-17	3-9	3-3	9	2	0	0	20
Koree Cotton	G	26	5-8	1-3	2-2	4	3	0	1	13
Marcellus Brigham Jr.	Forward	33	5-9	1-2	1-2	6	0	1	0	12
Michael Houge	F	29	5-8	0-0	1-2	7	1	1	0	11
Jamar Franklin	G	21	3-7	3-7	0-0	0	0	0	0	9
Iaroslav Niagu	F	21	2-2	0-0	4-4	2	1	0	3	8
Mason Nicholson	F	22	2-4	0-0	0-0	6	1	1	0	4
Jao Ituka	G	12	1-3	1-3	0-2	1	1	0	0	3

Advanced Game Stats

65.9Possessions65.9

124.4Offensive Efficiency121.4

121.4Defensive Efficiency124.4

3.0Net Efficiency-3.0

56.9%Effective FG%59.5%

58.8%True Shooting %61.4%

6.1%Turnover Rate19.7%

15.4%Free Throw Rate25.9%

38.5%3-Point Rate41.4%

4.50Assist / Turnover0.69

Game Summary

Toledo won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 65.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.