Utah Valley

25-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

52.6%Utah Valley

47.4%Murray State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUtah Valley -1.3

PROJECTED TOTAL159.5

MODEL MONEYLINEUtah Valley -111

Murray State

20-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUtah Valley 80

Projected Total159.5

Projected ScoreMurray State 79

Team Comparison

Utah ValleyMetricMurray State

59.1MMH Power Index53.6

113.4Offensive Efficiency115.0

97.3Defensive Efficiency111.0

16.1Net Efficiency4.0

-3.3Strength of Schedule3.5

6.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.5

70.6Tempo72.3

56.0%Effective FG%54.0%

19.9%Turnover Rate16.3%

36.2%Offensive Rebound %32.7%

37.3%Free Throw Rate39.1%

11.4Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Utah Valley HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUtah Valley holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.1–53.6), defensive efficiency (97.3–111.0), net efficiency (16.1–4.0), recent form (6.8–-9.5).

Murray State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (115.0–113.4), strength of schedule (3.5–-3.3), ball security (16.3–19.9).

Final

Utah Valley

77—75

Murray State

Utah Valley by 2 • 67.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Utah ValleyTEAM STATMurray State

30-61FG23-50

49.0%FG%46.0%

5-153PT7-18

33.0%3PT%39.0%

12-16FT22-33

75.0%FT%67.0%

40Rebounds27

12Offensive Rebounds5

12Assists11

11Turnovers7

4Steals8

4Blocks5

24Fouls16

Player Box Score

Utah Valley

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Carter Welling	F	23	6-12	2-3	5-6	9	0	0	2	19
Dominick Nelson	G	29	5-10	0-0	5-7	9	3	1	0	15
Hayden Welling	F	16	5-7	1-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	11
Ethan Potter	F	25	5-9	0-0	0-0	3	0	1	0	10
Tanner Toolson	G	30	4-9	1-5	0-0	4	0	0	0	9
Kylin Green	G	28	3-5	0-0	0-0	3	3	0	0	6
Osiris Grady	F	13	1-3	0-1	2-3	2	2	0	0	4
Trevan Leonhardt	G	12	1-3	1-2	0-0	4	2	1	1	3
Cory Wells	F	21	0-3	0-2	0-0	3	2	1	1	0
Jackson Holcombe	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Terence Harcum	Guard	34	6-9	5-7	2-2	0	0	2	0	19
Nick Ellington	F	22	6-9	0-0	5-9	6	0	2	1	17
JaCobi Wood	Guard	40	6-14	1-4	2-4	4	8	1	0	15
AJ Ferguson	Guard	39	3-5	0-2	7-11	2	0	1	1	13
Kylen Milton	Guard	21	2-5	1-2	4-5	3	1	1	0	9
Alden Applewhite	F	20	0-3	0-1	2-2	2	2	0	0	2
KyeRon Lindsay-Martin	F	17	0-3	0-0	0-0	5	0	1	3	0
Justin Morgan	Guard	7	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.7Possessions67.7

113.7Offensive Efficiency110.8

110.8Defensive Efficiency113.7

3.0Net Efficiency-3.0

53.3%Effective FG%53.0%

56.1%True Shooting %57.1%

16.3%Turnover Rate10.3%

26.2%Free Throw Rate66.0%

24.6%3-Point Rate36.0%

1.09Assist / Turnover1.57

Game Summary

Utah Valley won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 67.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.