Sacramento State

10-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

84.8%Sacramento State

15.2%Air Force

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSacramento State -10.5

PROJECTED TOTAL152.5

MODEL MONEYLINESacramento State -558

Air Force

3-29

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSacramento State 81

Projected Total152.5

Projected ScoreAir Force 71

Team Comparison

Sacramento StateMetricAir Force

43MMH Power Index23

106.1Offensive Efficiency91.3

112.0Defensive Efficiency118.5

-5.9Net Efficiency-27.2

0.9Strength of Schedule6.2

-7.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-33.5

73.2Tempo67.4

48.5%Effective FG%49.0%

14.2%Turnover Rate21.9%

25.1%Offensive Rebound %21.4%

41.8%Free Throw Rate35.9%

-4.3Average Margin-18.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Sacramento State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY84.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSacramento State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (43.0–23.0), offensive efficiency (106.1–91.3), defensive efficiency (112.0–118.5), net efficiency (-5.9–-27.2).

Air Force COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.2–0.9), shooting efficiency (49.0–48.5).

Final

Sacramento State

63—61

Air Force

Sacramento State by 2 • 64.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Sacramento StateTEAM STATAir Force

22-56FG18-52

39.0%FG%35.0%

9-213PT8-28

43.0%3PT%29.0%

10-14FT17-29

71.0%FT%59.0%

39Rebounds36

10Offensive Rebounds8

13Assists14

12Turnovers6

4Steals5

3Blocks4

27Fouls19

Player Box Score

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
EJ Neal Jr.	G	35	4-12	4-9	0-0	5	1	1	1	12
Julian Vaughns	Guard	16	5-8	2-4	0-0	2	0	1	0	12
Lachlan Brewer	G	27	4-5	2-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	10
Jacob Holt	Forward	23	3-5	0-1	4-4	8	1	0	1	10
Chudi Dioramma	F	12	2-8	0-0	2-2	7	0	0	1	6
Emil Skytta	G	25	2-5	1-1	0-0	3	2	0	0	5
Bailey Nunn	G	34	0-4	0-2	4-5	4	7	2	0	4
Deonte Williams	Guard	20	2-9	0-1	0-2	5	1	0	0	4
Bowyn Beatty	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-1	1	0	0	0	0
Michael Wilson	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Air Force

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jeffrey Mills	Guard	37	7-13	4-9	1-3	4	1	0	0	19
Ethan Taylor	Guard	40	2-12	1-9	6-9	8	5	2	0	11
Wesley Celichowski	C	25	2-4	0-0	3-4	2	1	0	1	7
Caleb Walker	F	15	3-8	0-0	1-3	6	2	0	2	7
Sam Duskin	Guard	21	2-6	2-6	0-0	2	0	2	1	6
Kyle Marshall	G	12	1-4	0-1	3-4	2	0	1	0	5
Luke Kearney	F	17	1-3	1-2	1-2	4	0	0	0	4
Byron Brown	Guard	33	0-2	0-1	2-4	6	5	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

64.3Possessions64.3

98.0Offensive Efficiency94.9

94.9Defensive Efficiency98.0

3.1Net Efficiency-3.1

47.3%Effective FG%42.3%

50.3%True Shooting %46.4%

18.6%Turnover Rate9.4%

25.0%Free Throw Rate55.8%

37.5%3-Point Rate53.8%

1.08Assist / Turnover2.33

Game Summary

Sacramento State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 64.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.