TCU

23-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

49.2%TCU

50.8%Colorado State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADColorado State -0.8

PROJECTED TOTAL150.0

MODEL MONEYLINEColorado State -103

Colorado State

21-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTCU 75

Projected Total150.0

Projected ScoreColorado State 75

Team Comparison

TCUMetricColorado State

59.7MMH Power Index55.4

110.2Offensive Efficiency117.1

102.7Defensive Efficiency109.9

7.5Net Efficiency7.2

4.6Strength of Schedule0.4

2.2Last 10 Net Efficiency4.3

70.2Tempo64.7

50.5%Effective FG%58.6%

15.3%Turnover Rate18.3%

33.6%Offensive Rebound %29.2%

38.3%Free Throw Rate41.2%

5.3Average Margin4.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

TCU HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTCU holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.7–55.4), defensive efficiency (102.7–109.9), net efficiency (7.5–7.2), strength of schedule (4.6–0.4).

Colorado State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (117.1–110.2), recent form (4.3–2.2), shooting efficiency (58.6–50.5).

Final

TCU

72—76

Colorado State

Colorado State by 4 • 79.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

TCUTEAM STATColorado State

21-62FG29-67

34.0%FG%43.0%

9-253PT8-27

36.0%3PT%30.0%

21-30FT10-12

70.0%FT%83.0%

38Rebounds44

9Offensive Rebounds10

11Assists16

13Turnovers16

9Steals2

6Blocks6

17Fouls20

Player Box Score

TCU

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Frankie Collins	G	41	5-17	2-6	6-6	8	5	5	0	18
Noah Reynolds	Guard	38	4-11	2-7	2-3	4	0	2	0	12
Trazarien White	Forward	33	2-9	2-3	4-6	4	2	1	0	10
David Punch	F	14	3-4	0-0	1-2	6	0	0	0	7
Vasean Allette	PG	12	3-8	1-1	0-0	2	2	0	0	7
Ernest Udeh Jr.	C	30	2-3	0-0	2-6	5	1	0	4	6
Brendan Wenzel	Guard	30	1-5	1-4	2-2	4	1	1	1	5
Micah Robinson	F	11	1-3	1-2	2-2	1	0	0	1	5
Isaiah Manning	F	8	0-0	0-0	2-3	0	0	0	0	2
Jace Posey	G	8	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Colorado State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nique Clifford	Guard	43	12-20	1-4	0-1	12	6	0	3	25
Jalen Lake	Guard	36	5-15	3-8	2-2	3	1	1	0	15
Bowen Born	Guard	26	4-7	3-5	2-2	2	0	0	0	13
Rashaan Mbemba	F	24	3-4	0-0	4-5	6	0	0	1	10
Ethan Morton	Guard	31	2-7	0-1	0-0	5	3	0	0	4
Kyle Jorgensen	F	13	1-3	0-2	2-2	1	0	0	0	4
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson	F	21	1-5	1-3	0-0	3	0	0	2	3
Keshawn Williams	G	11	1-4	0-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	2
Kyan Evans	G	20	0-2	0-1	0-0	5	5	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

79.5Possessions79.5

90.6Offensive Efficiency95.6

95.6Defensive Efficiency90.6

-5.0Net Efficiency5.0

41.1%Effective FG%49.3%

47.2%True Shooting %52.3%

16.2%Turnover Rate20.3%

48.4%Free Throw Rate17.9%

40.3%3-Point Rate40.3%

0.85Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Colorado State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 79.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.