Indiana State

11-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

12.0%Indiana State

88.0%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -13.3

PROJECTED TOTAL157.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -733

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIndiana State 72

Projected Total157.0

Projected ScoreArkansas State 85

Team Comparison

Indiana StateMetricArkansas State

44.4MMH Power Index57.7

104.7Offensive Efficiency113.1

106.0Defensive Efficiency105.3

-1.3Net Efficiency7.8

0.1Strength of Schedule-1.0

-5.2Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.3Tempo73.3

53.6%Effective FG%52.7%

19.5%Turnover Rate19.4%

27.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

28.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

-0.9Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY88.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–44.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–104.7), defensive efficiency (105.3–106.0), net efficiency (7.8–-1.3).

Indiana State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.1–-1.0), shooting efficiency (53.6–52.7).

Final

Indiana State

81—86

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 5 • 74.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Indiana StateTEAM STATArkansas State

28-67FG31-68

42.0%FG%46.0%

9-323PT9-26

28.0%3PT%35.0%

16-20FT15-22

80.0%FT%68.0%

40Rebounds42

12Offensive Rebounds12

15Assists8

9Turnovers8

5Steals5

3Blocks6

17Fouls16

Player Box Score

Indiana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaden Daughtry	F	19	10-11	1-1	0-1	5	0	0	0	21
Aaron Gray	Forward	23	3-8	1-4	6-8	9	0	0	0	13
K'mani Doughty	Guard	23	4-9	3-6	2-2	1	0	0	1	13
Markus Harding	C	21	4-10	0-2	1-2	5	1	0	1	9
Samage Teel	Guard	30	3-11	0-6	2-2	7	6	1	0	8
Bruno Alocen	G	21	1-3	1-3	3-3	0	2	1	0	6
Jahni Summers	G	20	2-6	2-5	0-0	0	0	0	0	6
Josiah LeGree	G	19	1-6	1-2	0-0	4	6	2	1	3
Camp Wagner	G	24	0-3	0-3	2-2	2	0	1	0	2

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Derrian Ford	G	32	7-15	3-8	1-2	5	0	0	0	18
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	26	5-10	2-4	5-8	5	1	1	0	17
Taryn Todd	Guard	27	7-15	1-4	0-0	6	4	1	1	15
Kobe Julien	Forward	27	5-13	1-4	2-2	4	1	0	0	13
Cody Head	G	7	3-5	0-1	2-2	2	0	1	0	8
Avery Felts	Guard	24	2-3	2-3	0-0	1	0	2	0	6
Izaiyah Nelson	F	10	2-4	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	0	5
Rashaud Marshall	F	24	0-0	0-0	3-4	10	0	0	3	3
Josh Hill	F	6	0-1	0-1	1-2	1	0	0	0	1
Joseph Pinion	G	12	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	2	0	2	0
Justin Johnson	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

74.0Possessions74.0

109.5Offensive Efficiency116.2

116.2Defensive Efficiency109.5

-6.8Net Efficiency6.8

48.5%Effective FG%52.2%

52.9%True Shooting %54.8%

12.2%Turnover Rate10.7%

29.9%Free Throw Rate32.4%

47.8%3-Point Rate38.2%

1.67Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 74.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.