Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

33.5%Arkansas State

66.5%Hofstra

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADHofstra -5.6

PROJECTED TOTAL153.4

MODEL MONEYLINEHofstra -199

Hofstra

24-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 74

Projected Total153.4

Projected ScoreHofstra 79

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricHofstra

57.7MMH Power Index59.3

113.1Offensive Efficiency114.0

105.3Defensive Efficiency100.9

7.8Net Efficiency13.1

-1.0Strength of Schedule-2.9

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency14.0

73.3Tempo66.2

52.7%Effective FG%52.2%

19.4%Turnover Rate16.1%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %35.0%

39.6%Free Throw Rate32.0%

5.8Average Margin8.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Hofstra HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMHofstra holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.3–57.7), offensive efficiency (114.0–113.1), defensive efficiency (100.9–105.3), net efficiency (13.1–7.8).

Arkansas State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.0–-2.9), recent form (15.2–14.0), shooting efficiency (52.7–52.2).

Final

Arkansas State

66—68

Hofstra

Hofstra by 2 • 66.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATHofstra

21-48FG26-54

44.0%FG%48.0%

6-193PT4-12

32.0%3PT%33.0%

18-22FT12-19

82.0%FT%63.0%

29Rebounds32

6Offensive Rebounds9

6Assists11

15Turnovers12

4Steals8

3Blocks2

18Fouls18

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Derrian Ford	G	38	5-11	3-7	4-4	4	1	1	0	17
Kobe Julien	Forward	31	6-10	0-3	4-6	5	1	2	1	16
Joseph Pinion	G	16	4-7	3-4	1-1	1	0	0	0	12
Taryn Todd	Guard	29	2-7	0-0	4-4	6	2	1	1	8
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	29	1-3	0-0	3-4	1	0	0	0	5
Izaiyah Nelson	F	22	1-3	0-2	2-3	6	2	0	1	4
Rashaud Marshall	F	19	1-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Cody Head	G	5	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Avery Felts	Guard	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Josh Hill	F	2	0-3	0-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Hofstra

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cruz Davis	G	35	6-12	1-1	11-14	5	2	3	0	24
Michael Graham	Forward	27	7-8	0-0	0-1	12	1	0	0	14
Jean Aranguren	G	37	4-8	2-3	0-0	2	4	2	1	10
Jaquan Sanders	G	33	3-14	1-6	0-0	2	2	0	0	7
Silas Sunday	F	13	2-2	0-0	1-2	3	1	0	1	5
Khalil Farmer	G	19	1-3	0-1	0-2	1	0	1	0	2
TJ Gadsden	Guard	13	1-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	2
KiJan Robinson	G	12	1-4	0-0	0-0	3	1	1	0	2
German Plotnikov	G	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

66.8Possessions66.8

98.8Offensive Efficiency101.8

101.8Defensive Efficiency98.8

-3.0Net Efficiency3.0

50.0%Effective FG%51.9%

56.5%True Shooting %53.9%

22.2%Turnover Rate18.2%

45.8%Free Throw Rate35.2%

39.6%3-Point Rate22.2%

0.40Assist / Turnover0.92

Game Summary

Hofstra won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 66.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.