Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.7%Illinois State

79.3%Belmont

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBelmont -9.2

PROJECTED TOTAL152.1

MODEL MONEYLINEBelmont -383

Belmont

26-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 71

Projected Total152.1

Projected ScoreBelmont 81

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricBelmont

54.3MMH Power Index61.8

110.6Offensive Efficiency118.6

101.4Defensive Efficiency103.7

9.2Net Efficiency14.9

1.0Strength of Schedule-0.2

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency10.0

67.5Tempo70.7

54.3%Effective FG%60.7%

16.8%Turnover Rate17.8%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %28.8%

32.0%Free Throw Rate32.7%

6.2Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Belmont HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBelmont holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.8–54.3), offensive efficiency (118.6–110.6), net efficiency (14.9–9.2), recent form (10.0–-4.4).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.4–103.7), strength of schedule (1.0–-0.2), ball security (16.8–17.8).

Final

Illinois State

97—99

Belmont

Belmont by 2 • 80.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATBelmont

35-65FG39-75

54.0%FG%52.0%

18-333PT11-26

55.0%3PT%42.0%

9-10FT10-16

90.0%FT%63.0%

37Rebounds32

9Offensive Rebounds11

24Assists23

19Turnovers10

8Steals12

2Blocks4

16Fouls13

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Caden Boser	Forward	21	6-9	3-4	2-2	1	1	1	1	17
Johnny Kinziger	G	36	5-12	4-8	2-2	5	5	1	0	16
Chase Walker	F	22	8-10	0-0	0-0	6	3	0	1	16
Ty Pence	G	40	5-8	3-5	2-2	7	3	2	0	15
Landon Wolf	G	30	4-11	3-6	3-4	6	0	1	0	14
Dalton Banks	Guard	37	5-10	3-6	0-0	5	9	1	0	13
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	18	2-3	2-3	0-0	3	2	0	0	6
Jordan Davis	Guard	17	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	1	2	0	0
Jack Daugherty	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Belmont

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Walker	G	37	10-12	3-4	1-1	3	2	2	1	24
Jonathan Pierre	Forward	32	6-17	2-8	5-6	9	5	3	1	19
Tyler Lundblade	G	30	5-8	5-8	0-0	2	2	1	1	15
Brody Peebles	Guard	17	6-10	1-2	1-4	0	2	1	0	14
Carter Whitt	Guard	31	4-12	0-1	2-2	8	9	3	0	10
Brigham Rogers	F	21	3-6	0-1	1-3	4	0	1	0	7
Sam Orme	F	27	3-5	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	1	6
Drew Scharnowski	F	11	2-4	0-0	0-0	2	2	1	0	4
Aidan Noyes	F	15	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Win Miller	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

80.7Possessions80.7

120.2Offensive Efficiency122.7

122.7Defensive Efficiency120.2

-2.5Net Efficiency2.5

67.7%Effective FG%59.3%

69.5%True Shooting %59.9%

23.8%Turnover Rate12.3%

15.4%Free Throw Rate21.3%

50.8%3-Point Rate34.7%

1.26Assist / Turnover2.30

Game Summary

Belmont won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 80.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.