Cal Poly

14-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

32.7%Cal Poly

67.3%UC Davis

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC Davis -6.7

PROJECTED TOTAL164.3

MODEL MONEYLINEUC Davis -206

UC Davis

19-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal Poly 79

Projected Total164.3

Projected ScoreUC Davis 85

Team Comparison

Cal PolyMetricUC Davis

46.5MMH Power Index48.4

107.2Offensive Efficiency107.2

111.0Defensive Efficiency103.7

-3.8Net Efficiency3.5

1.7Strength of Schedule-1.9

2.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

76.6Tempo72.4

52.2%Effective FG%52.3%

19.8%Turnover Rate17.7%

29.9%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

35.8%Free Throw Rate41.5%

-2.9Average Margin2.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Davis HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY67.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Davis holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.4–46.5), defensive efficiency (103.7–111.0), net efficiency (3.5–-3.8), shooting efficiency (52.3–52.2).

Cal Poly COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.7–-1.9), recent form (2.4–-0.1), offensive rebounding (29.9–26.7).

Final

Cal Poly

66—77

UC Davis

UC Davis by 11 • 81.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal PolyTEAM STATUC Davis

24-58FG28-63

41.0%FG%44.0%

7-243PT9-21

29.0%3PT%43.0%

11-14FT12-16

79.0%FT%75.0%

43Rebounds31

16Offensive Rebounds10

14Assists18

33Turnovers21

7Steals18

3Blocks6

17Fouls18

Player Box Score

Cal Poly

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Owen Koonce	Guard	27	6-13	4-8	3-4	2	3	0	0	19
Kieran Elliott	G	13	3-5	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	8
Mac Riniker	Guard	27	3-9	1-3	0-0	7	1	3	1	7
Guzman Vasilic	G	23	3-8	1-3	0-0	6	0	1	0	7
Cayden Ward	G	19	3-8	1-4	0-0	3	2	0	0	7
Peter Bandelj	G	24	0-2	0-1	5-6	4	2	1	0	5
Ethan Menzies	Forward	17	2-2	0-0	1-2	6	2	1	0	5
Luka Tarlac	G	20	2-4	0-1	0-0	6	4	0	2	4
Aaron Price Jr.	PF	9	2-4	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
Hayden Jory	Guard	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Logan McLaughlin	Guard	9	0-3	0-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Connor Sevilla	G	34	5-10	3-6	4-4	3	3	1	0	17
TY Johnson	Guard	33	6-21	1-4	1-3	4	4	6	0	14
Pablo Tamba	F	27	7-7	0-0	0-0	6	2	2	3	14
Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	24	5-11	2-5	2-2	3	2	2	0	14
Leo DeBruhl	Guard	27	4-9	3-5	2-3	4	4	3	0	13
Nils Cooper	G	16	0-2	0-1	3-4	2	1	2	1	3
Niko Rocak	F	18	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	1	1	2
Sione Lose	Guard	16	0-2	0-0	0-0	2	2	1	0	0
Jamaal Unuakhalu	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

81.7Possessions81.7

80.8Offensive Efficiency94.2

94.2Defensive Efficiency80.8

-13.5Net Efficiency13.5

47.4%Effective FG%51.6%

51.0%True Shooting %54.5%

40.4%Turnover Rate25.7%

24.1%Free Throw Rate25.4%

41.4%3-Point Rate33.3%

0.42Assist / Turnover0.86

Game Summary

UC Davis won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 81.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.