UT Arlington

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.6%UT Arlington

80.4%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -9.1

PROJECTED TOTAL149.7

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -410

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUT Arlington 70

Projected Total149.7

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Team Comparison

UT ArlingtonMetricArkansas State

49.6MMH Power Index57.7

102.7Offensive Efficiency113.1

97.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

4.8Net Efficiency7.8

-0.8Strength of Schedule-1.0

-3.9Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

68.1Tempo73.3

48.5%Effective FG%52.7%

20.4%Turnover Rate19.4%

36.0%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

43.7%Free Throw Rate39.6%

3.3Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.6), offensive efficiency (113.1–102.7), net efficiency (7.8–4.8), recent form (15.2–-3.9).

UT Arlington COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (97.9–105.3), strength of schedule (-0.8–-1.0), free throw rate (43.7–39.6).

Final

UT Arlington

79—83

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 4 • 71.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UT ArlingtonTEAM STATArkansas State

28-59FG23-57

47.0%FG%40.0%

14-303PT6-23

47.0%3PT%26.0%

9-21FT31-42

43.0%FT%74.0%

33Rebounds36

11Offensive Rebounds16

15Assists11

13Turnovers10

6Steals10

6Blocks4

30Fouls18

Player Box Score

UT Arlington

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaden Wells	Guard	32	6-14	5-13	2-6	4	2	0	0	19
Diante Smith	Forward	22	6-8	3-5	0-0	5	0	2	1	15
Lance Ware	Forward	36	4-6	0-0	3-5	7	2	2	4	11
Raysean Seamster	F	27	4-10	1-3	1-4	7	3	1	1	10
Darius Burford	Guard	34	3-10	1-3	1-2	7	6	0	0	8
Brody Robinson	G	21	2-6	2-2	2-4	0	0	1	0	8
Brandyn Talbot	Guard	15	2-4	2-4	0-0	0	2	0	0	6
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Troy Hupstead	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	31	8-16	2-5	5-8	8	4	1	0	23
Joseph Pinion	G	30	4-8	3-7	5-6	4	1	3	2	16
Kobe Julien	Forward	31	2-10	0-4	10-11	7	2	0	1	14
Rashaud Marshall	F	24	3-6	0-0	4-6	6	0	1	0	10
Derrian Ford	G	14	2-4	0-0	3-3	2	0	0	0	7
Izaiyah Nelson	F	16	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	1	1	0	4
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	23	0-2	0-2	3-6	2	0	2	1	3
Avery Felts	Guard	17	1-4	1-4	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	6	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	2	2	0	2
Zane Butler	Guard	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	0	0	0	0	1
Cody Head	G	7	0-2	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.0Possessions71.0

111.3Offensive Efficiency116.9

116.9Defensive Efficiency111.3

-5.6Net Efficiency5.6

59.3%Effective FG%45.6%

57.3%True Shooting %53.9%

18.3%Turnover Rate14.1%

35.6%Free Throw Rate73.7%

50.8%3-Point Rate40.4%

1.15Assist / Turnover1.10

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 71.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.