Saint Louis

29-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

70.5%Saint Louis

29.5%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSaint Louis -6.0

PROJECTED TOTAL152.4

MODEL MONEYLINESaint Louis -239

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSaint Louis 79

Projected Total152.4

Projected ScoreIllinois State 73

Team Comparison

Saint LouisMetricIllinois State

66.7MMH Power Index54.3

120.8Offensive Efficiency110.6

97.6Defensive Efficiency101.4

23.2Net Efficiency9.2

0.3Strength of Schedule1.0

0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

72.2Tempo67.5

59.9%Effective FG%54.3%

17.1%Turnover Rate16.8%

31.6%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

33.9%Free Throw Rate32.0%

16.8Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Saint Louis HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSaint Louis holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (66.7–54.3), offensive efficiency (120.8–110.6), defensive efficiency (97.6–101.4), net efficiency (23.2–9.2).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.0–0.3), ball security (16.8–17.1).

Final

Saint Louis

77—81

Illinois State

Illinois State by 4 • 62.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Saint LouisTEAM STATIllinois State

26-54FG29-55

48.0%FG%53.0%

12-313PT8-17

39.0%3PT%47.0%

13-14FT15-21

93.0%FT%71.0%

30Rebounds28

10Offensive Rebounds10

14Assists13

11Turnovers8

5Steals4

3Blocks4

23Fouls12

Player Box Score

Saint Louis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Robbie Avila	C	30	10-17	3-8	5-5	5	2	1	1	28
Isaiah Swope	Guard	35	7-15	6-10	2-2	1	4	2	0	22
Gibson Jimerson	Guard	40	4-13	2-9	5-5	6	1	0	0	15
Kobe Johnson	Guard	31	3-5	0-2	0-0	4	1	0	0	6
Kilian Brockhoff	F	10	1-2	1-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	3
Amari McCottry	G	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Dylan Warlick	F	6	0-1	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	0	1
Kalu Anya	F	33	0-0	0-0	0-0	9	5	1	2	0
Kellen Thames	G	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Max Pikaar	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	31	10-15	2-2	5-7	8	1	0	1	27
Johnny Kinziger	G	36	6-13	2-3	6-7	6	2	1	0	20
Dalton Banks	Guard	31	3-8	0-3	2-2	2	4	1	3	8
Ty Pence	G	24	3-5	1-1	1-3	2	1	0	0	8
Landon Wolf	G	26	3-6	1-4	0-0	3	2	0	0	7
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	24	2-5	0-1	1-2	2	2	0	0	5
Jordan Davis	Guard	15	1-1	1-1	0-0	3	0	1	0	3
Caden Boser	Forward	9	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	1	1	0	3
Jack Daugherty	F	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.4Possessions62.4

123.4Offensive Efficiency129.8

129.8Defensive Efficiency123.4

-6.4Net Efficiency6.4

59.3%Effective FG%60.0%

63.5%True Shooting %62.3%

17.8%Turnover Rate12.7%

25.9%Free Throw Rate38.2%

57.4%3-Point Rate30.9%

1.27Assist / Turnover1.63

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 62.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.