American University

16-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

5.7%American University

94.3%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -18.4

PROJECTED TOTAL149.1

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -1654

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAmerican University 65

Projected Total149.1

Projected ScoreVirginia 84

Team Comparison

American UniversityMetricVirginia

48.2MMH Power Index68.9

110.6Offensive Efficiency119.0

105.8Defensive Efficiency101.8

4.8Net Efficiency17.2

-4.3Strength of Schedule5.2

2.2Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

67.5Tempo67.6

52.6%Effective FG%55.0%

15.7%Turnover Rate16.0%

28.0%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

30.1%Free Throw Rate33.2%

3.3Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY94.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–48.2), offensive efficiency (119.0–110.6), defensive efficiency (101.8–105.8), net efficiency (17.2–4.8).

American University COUNTERS WITHball security (15.7–16.0).

Final

American University

58—63

Virginia

Virginia by 5 • 58.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

American UniversityTEAM STATVirginia

19-50FG23-50

38.0%FG%46.0%

11-313PT8-19

35.0%3PT%42.0%

9-9FT9-14

100.0%FT%64.0%

26Rebounds33

3Offensive Rebounds6

13Assists17

7Turnovers8

5Steals4

3Blocks3

14Fouls10

Player Box Score

American University

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Matt Mayock	F	30	6-8	4-5	0-0	5	1	1	0	16
Matt Rogers	Forward	32	4-13	0-3	4-4	7	0	0	1	12
Colin Smalls	Guard	31	4-13	3-10	1-1	2	3	0	1	12
Greg Jones	F	32	2-5	1-3	4-4	4	3	0	0	9
Geoff Sprouse	G	26	2-7	2-7	0-0	1	2	0	0	6
Julen Iturbe	F	9	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Lincoln Ball	Guard	25	0-0	0-0	0-0	5	3	4	1	0
Wyatt Nausadis	G	12	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Adrian Samuels	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Elijah Saunders	F	36	7-9	0-1	7-8	8	2	0	0	21
Taine Murray	Guard	25	4-6	3-4	2-2	0	2	0	0	13
Isaac McKneely	G	37	4-10	3-8	0-2	5	1	0	0	11
Jacob Cofie	F	25	3-6	0-0	0-2	7	4	2	0	6
Andrew Rohde	G	28	2-9	1-3	0-0	3	4	1	0	5
Dai Dai Ames	G	22	2-4	1-1	0-0	0	1	0	1	5
TJ Power	F	4	1-3	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	2
Blake Buchanan	F	15	0-2	0-0	0-0	5	2	1	1	0
Ishan Sharma	F	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

58.5Possessions58.5

99.1Offensive Efficiency107.7

107.7Defensive Efficiency99.1

-8.5Net Efficiency8.5

49.0%Effective FG%54.0%

53.4%True Shooting %55.6%

12.0%Turnover Rate13.6%

18.0%Free Throw Rate28.0%

62.0%3-Point Rate38.0%

1.86Assist / Turnover2.13

Game Summary

Virginia won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 58.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.