UMBC

24-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

66.9%UMBC

33.1%American University

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUMBC -3.1

PROJECTED TOTAL142.6

MODEL MONEYLINEUMBC -202

American University

16-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUMBC 73

Projected Total142.6

Projected ScoreAmerican University 70

Team Comparison

UMBCMetricAmerican University

59.1MMH Power Index48.2

113.0Offensive Efficiency110.6

99.0Defensive Efficiency105.8

14.0Net Efficiency4.8

-5.6Strength of Schedule-4.3

24.7Last 10 Net Efficiency2.2

65.5Tempo67.5

54.3%Effective FG%52.6%

14.3%Turnover Rate15.7%

25.2%Offensive Rebound %28.0%

34.1%Free Throw Rate30.1%

9.1Average Margin3.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UMBC HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUMBC holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.1–48.2), offensive efficiency (113.0–110.6), defensive efficiency (99.0–105.8), net efficiency (14.0–4.8).

American University COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-4.3–-5.6), offensive rebounding (28.0–25.2).

Final

UMBC

96—93

American University

UMBC by 3 • 83.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UMBCTEAM STATAmerican University

38-72FG37-77

53.0%FG%48.0%

7-203PT11-31

35.0%3PT%35.0%

13-18FT8-16

72.0%FT%50.0%

40Rebounds41

7Offensive Rebounds12

21Assists21

9Turnovers11

5Steals5

1Blocks4

16Fouls20

Player Box Score

UMBC

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Marcus Banks Jr.	G	46	11-20	6-13	0-1	9	3	0	0	28
Bryce Johnson	Guard	45	8-12	0-2	3-3	4	3	0	1	19
Josh Odunowo	F	34	7-12	0-0	4-6	4	3	2	0	18
Ace Valentine	G	45	7-12	0-1	3-4	4	9	1	0	17
Regimantas Ciunys	F	19	3-5	1-1	2-2	6	1	0	0	9
Marlon Short	Guard	30	1-6	0-0	1-2	7	1	1	0	3
Devan Sapp	Guard	9	1-4	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Louie Jordan	F	14	0-1	0-1	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Chaydon Stone	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
JC Harris	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Tim Eze	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

American University

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Matt Rogers	Forward	38	15-20	2-3	1-2	10	5	0	2	33
Matt Mayock	F	37	5-12	2-6	5-8	2	1	0	1	17
Geoff Sprouse	G	41	5-11	5-11	0-0	4	5	0	0	15
Colin Smalls	Guard	37	5-12	0-5	1-4	3	5	1	0	11
Greg Jones	F	30	3-5	1-2	1-1	2	1	1	0	8
Elijah Stephens	Guard	26	2-8	0-1	0-0	1	3	2	0	4
Wyatt Nausadis	G	1	1-2	1-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Lincoln Ball	Guard	31	1-5	0-0	0-1	15	1	1	0	2
Julen Iturbe	F	8	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	1	0
Mason Whittaker	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

83.1Possessions83.1

115.5Offensive Efficiency111.9

111.9Defensive Efficiency115.5

3.6Net Efficiency-3.6

57.6%Effective FG%55.2%

59.6%True Shooting %55.0%

10.9%Turnover Rate13.2%

25.0%Free Throw Rate20.8%

27.8%3-Point Rate40.3%

2.33Assist / Turnover1.91

Game Summary

UMBC won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 83.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.