NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.4%NC State

81.6%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -10.2

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -443

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreVirginia 84

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricVirginia

60.1MMH Power Index68.9

118.4Offensive Efficiency119.0

108.6Defensive Efficiency101.8

9.8Net Efficiency17.2

6.4Strength of Schedule5.2

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

70.2Tempo67.6

55.1%Effective FG%55.0%

13.1%Turnover Rate16.0%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

35.7%Free Throw Rate33.2%

6.9Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–60.1), offensive efficiency (119.0–118.4), defensive efficiency (101.8–108.6), net efficiency (17.2–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.4–5.2), shooting efficiency (55.1–55.0), ball security (13.1–16.0).

Final

NC State

67—70

Virginia

Virginia by 3 • 58.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATVirginia

24-54FG26-48

44.0%FG%54.0%

8-233PT9-20

35.0%3PT%45.0%

11-15FT9-12

73.0%FT%75.0%

34Rebounds22

13Offensive Rebounds3

14Assists18

11Turnovers7

4Steals3

—Blocks4

16Fouls15

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Jayden Taylor	Guard	33	4-8	3-6	3-3	2	5	1	14
Marcus Hill	G	28	5-11	0-0	2-2	8	2	1	12
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield	Forward	27	4-9	0-0	4-4	7	0	0	12
Breon Pass	Guard	18	3-6	2-5	0-0	3	2	2	8
Michael O'Connell	Guard	36	2-6	2-6	1-2	6	4	0	7
Dontrez Styles	Guard	20	3-6	0-2	1-4	1	0	0	7
Trey Parker	G	5	1-2	1-2	0-0	0	0	0	3
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	20	1-5	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	2
Ismael Diouf	F	13	1-1	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	2

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Elijah Saunders	F	37	7-9	1-2	7-8	5	2	1	0	22
Isaac McKneely	G	37	5-14	4-9	0-0	3	3	0	0	14
Andrew Rohde	G	36	4-8	2-3	1-2	3	7	1	0	11
Jacob Cofie	F	25	3-5	0-2	0-0	2	1	1	3	6
Ishan Sharma	F	15	2-3	2-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	6
Taine Murray	Guard	23	2-5	0-1	0-0	3	5	0	0	4
Blake Buchanan	F	13	1-1	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	1	3
Dai Dai Ames	G	9	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
TJ Power	F	3	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Anthony Robinson	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

58.4Possessions58.4

114.7Offensive Efficiency119.9

119.9Defensive Efficiency114.7

-5.1Net Efficiency5.1

51.9%Effective FG%63.5%

54.8%True Shooting %65.2%

18.6%Turnover Rate12.1%

27.8%Free Throw Rate25.0%

42.6%3-Point Rate41.7%

1.27Assist / Turnover2.57

Game Summary

Virginia won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 58.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, True Shooting %, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.